China now appears to be a major factor
that shapes the world, as indicated in the article The Divided World in the
latest issue of Foreign Affairs.
Most of those touted as “China experts” in
the U.S. only understand China superficially, except for a few like Miles Yu,
former principal China policy and planning adviser to United States Secretary
of State Mike Pompeo, one whom China itself pays attention to.
Yu has recently stated that the challenges
that China brings to the world are not only economic and military, but also
morality. As an official appointed during the time of Donald Trump, his speech
has always been confrontational, and the goal is for the United States to “win”.
That said, Yu's view only represents the positions and attitudes of certain
fractions in the U.S., which is also a view of the past that is completely
different from that of the U.S. officials today. There is another view in the U.S.,
like that of secretary of state Antony Blinken and national security adviser
Jake Sullivan in the Biden administration who seek to co-exist with China. It
appears that the latter are more willing to negotiate with China so that the
U.S. would not “lose” or "not losing too badly".
It appears that there are two completely
different positions in the U.S.’ policy voices, and this has caused the current
international relations to fall into an unprecedented crisis. People simply
cannot be certain that whether the various "policies" of the United
States from the mouths of Biden, Blinken, and Sullivan are actual American
policies under normal circumstances, or if they would be changed by the Democratic
Party in the future based on the shifts in
the U.S. election.
In international relations, policy views
that usually have lasting influence are valuable and can cause extensive
international interaction. The current problem of the U.S. lies precisely in
this. I expect that the world will see in the next two or three years, the U.S.
does not actually possess sustainable policy influence.
After the Trump administration came to
power, it immediately began to deny various policies of the previous administration,
from health care plans to immigration matters. At the same time, personnel in the
federal government institutions were quickly replaced. This did not stop at
positions like the Secretary of Defense and the Secretary of Treasury, the same
had happened in the Supreme Court as well, and they were all changed to people
who would implement what Trump wanted to implement. Since the Trump era,
large-scale use of executive orders to evade legal agenda has become a common policy
After only four short years, the U.S. is
now governed by the Democratic Party’s Biden administration, yet its policy operations
are the same as during
the Trump era, but simply
moving towards the opposite direction. President Biden also immediately changed
his personnel and issued a large number of presidential executive orders after assuming
presidency. Of course, all of President Biden's actions were centered on
denying and subverting Trump's past policies.
The question is, can President Biden
maintain his current policy? I believe the answer is no.
After the tragedy of the withdrawal of
U.S. troops from Afghanistan, although President Biden passed the limited
infrastructure stimulus plan and started the welfare plan process, inflation has
partially offset Biden's political efforts. With Biden's support rate dipping sharply,
there is every reason to believe that the good days of the Democratic Party are
coming to an end. President Biden's term of office is very likely to be only
It is conceivable that once a Republican
presidential candidate comes to power again in the future, he or she will certainly
change the positions and policies again. The "policies" of the U.S.
President and the U.S. government can objectively only exist for 2-3 years at
best, without warranty period. This unprecedentedly serious partisan political
antagonism has caused a vicious cycle where each party negating one after another,
which eventually caused the people’s confidence to collapse. The people will
see that democracy under bipartisan politics is actually used to cover and
cater to the interests of political parties, rather than to reliably take care
of the national interests as expected by the democratic designers in history.
Of course, other democracies in the
world will also have policy changes after the change of government, but few are
as drastic and rapid as American politics. In the current U.S. Congress, the division
of the two is obvious, to the extent that one side would exhibit strong hostility
to another. This has caused the U.S.’ unsustainable policies to become a joke
in the world.
From the current situation, it would not
be hard to predict the failure of Biden and the Democratic Party in future U.S.
elections. This is not about the orientation of personal policy preferences,
but rather the induction and derivation of social signals. In addition, what is
more worthy of attention is that the extreme trend of American democratic
society may very well lead to certain structural changes in American politics
in the future. The greatest possibility of this potential change is that a
"third party". i.e., a major balancing force will emerge, thereby
breaking the existing structure in Congress. I believe such structural change
is the most important for the future of the United States.
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