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Sunday, January 02, 2022
Why COVID-19 will End in Autumn 2022
Kung Chan

In a recent discussion with some experts from the medical community about the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, I mentioned that already in summer-autumn of 2021, we have predicted that the pandemic will basically meet its end in the autumn of 2022. This prediction shocked them, as it appears to be at odd with the pandemic reality that the world's medical community is facing as we speak.

Their doubts are therefore inevitable, and the most asked question among them is "why will the pandemic end at that time".

This in fact, all boils down to the understanding of regular pattern and abstract laws so emphasized in information analysis. Naturally, this also includes the spread of viruses and their long-term condition, especially the weakening of these viruses. We have also seen the emergence of herd immunity and various changes in the understanding of viruses, including the so-called "living with COVID-19" put forward by some. This indicates that the over-alert of the power centers and policy departments of governments in various countries regarding the pandemic will be relaxed. At the same time, the introduction of therapeutic treatments will also cause people to lower their vigilance. All of this means the spread of the virus will intensify and accelerate, but this will actually reversely stimulate and lead to the rapid end of the COVID-19 pandemic, as people with the immunity against it could very well become the majority, which in turn will create the condition to end the spread of the pandemic.

I have a clear definition on "the end of the pandemic". This is not the disappearance of the novel coronavirus. In fact, the virus will remain, and constantly mutate, and those who were infected might be re-infected all over again. The so-called "end of the pandemic" refers to people becoming accustomed to the spread of the virus. They will no longer be panic about it, just like how they perceive the flu virus. The amplification effect of the internet on the fear of the virus will basically vanish. The spread of the coronavirus will still be cyclical, the same as the flu virus, and the policy processing framework of handling it will be like how the flu virus is handled. The role of disease control institutions in various countries will return to the past standard model and become "de-politicized". At the same time, medical treatments will be increasingly complete.

With all these, signs of the end of the pandemic will appear, and the radical pandemic-control policies of various countries will gradually subside disputes will be resolved, the supply chain will gradually return to normal, the unexpected fluctuations in prices will disappear, and the economy and industrial sectors will enter the process of recovery and healing. As this happens, governments of countries in the world will need to attempt to digest the large-scale monetary supply radically released in the past, and the employment of various countries will also become stable and predictable.

The "end of the pandemic in 2022" as predicted by ANBOUND was already published in a briefing in 2021, seven to eight months ago. At that time, the purpose was to analyze the status of the world's supply chain, hence we only published the forecast results. What is being discussed here is the process, the reasons, and characteristics of the forecast formation.

It is the hope of everyone that the catastrophic COVID-19 pandemic will end soon, and the good news is that this will happen in 2022.

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