A main issue in the year 2021 was the fierce competition and confrontation between the United States and China. In a turbulent world, everything is possible, including nuclear war. How then, can the world reduce such a danger and place it within a constrainable framework? In this regard, I have summarized my thoughts on this in the form of a short article published on June 2, 2021, advocating the formation of a "nuclear stability mechanism" in the world.
In the article, I mentioned that nuclear weapons are putting everyone at risk. At the height of the Cold War in 1986, there were a total of 70,300 nuclear weapons in the world that could be launched immediately. 33 years later in 2019, that figure was reduced to merely 3,750. However, the total number of nuclear weapons in the world is still 13,890. Moreover, there are more and more unreliable countries armed with nuclear weapons, such as North Korea, and these countries often declare they would use nuclear weapons. In the current world, apart from the fact that Russia and the United States have signed many related treaties and can independently check each other's nuclear weapons, the estimated number of nuclear weapons in many countries may be quite unreliable due to various factors.
Therefore, in this world proliferated with nuclear weapons, it would be crucial to form a structured and stable relationship in the interests of all countries. To put it bluntly, this kind of "nuclear stability mechanism" lays down the path for the use of nuclear weapons by all countries in the world. The country with the most nuclear power in this mechanism must act as a stabilizing force and form a check and balance force among nuclear powers, so as to control the huge risk posed by the ubiquity of nuclear weapons.
That said, it would not be easy for such "nuclear stability mechanism" to emerge. This will involve many factors and will encounter numerous obstacles, but its emergence is not unpredictable. In fact, even the negotiation process will bring the world's major nuclear powers closer and form a cooperative relationship. After all, the actual use of nuclear weapons would be a disaster for any country in the world, and it is the kind of disaster that could actually take place. Therefore, overcoming nuclear risks and forming a nuclear stability mechanism will be an opportunity for countries to transcend political challenges and rebuild the framework of global cooperation.
On January 4, 2022, the issue of the nuclear stabilization mechanism has finally made new progress.
On January 3, the website of Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the leaders of the five nuclear-weapon states issued a joint statement on the prevention of nuclear war and the avoidance of arms race. The statement stated that China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States believe that avoiding wars among nuclear-weapon states and reducing strategic risks are their primary responsibility.
These countries affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won, nor should it be fought. Given that the use of nuclear weapons will have far-reaching consequences, they also affirm that nuclear weapons should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war. In addition, they emphasized that further proliferation of nuclear weapons must be prevented.
As a think tank scholar, I am glad to see the progress of the world's nuclear stability mechanism. This is especially true that in a world of fierce confrontations, there will be many hot spots. That said, I still hope that this issue will receive more attention, as it is closely related to the destiny of mankind. Let us not forget that between the United States and China, there is more than just the competition between the two. Indeed, there are other matters pertaining to the survival of not just the people of the two countries, but the rest of the world as well.
