February 11, 2022 will be recorded in the history as a significant day in the world of information.
On this day, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan sent a shocking message, that Russia will launch an invasion on Ukraine within 24 to 48 hours, and American citizens there will be evacuated promptly. He also warned that any American in Ukraine should swiftly leave the country. After the outbreak of the war, the U.S. government will not be responsible for evacuating American citizens. He also stated the U.S. had ordered the immediate withdrawal of all U.S. embassy personnel from Kyiv.
Sullivan's unprecedented warning has caused an immediate uproar in the world. The Associated Press, Bloomberg, Reuters, MSNBC, CNN, and in fact, almost all major news media worldwide instantaneously interrupted their regular news program to report about such a breaking news. Wall Street's Dow Jones index plunged 500 points, and it is widely believed that the long-term tension in Ukraine has finally escalated to war. Some of the world's largest airlines hastily stopped their operations on Ukrainian routes, and oil prices soared rapidly.
On the same day, a number of ANBOUND's clients who were concerned about the crisis in Ukraine has consulted us on the development of the situation, and requested our judgment and prediction if war will indeed break out within 24 to 48 hours. As a matter of fact, a month ago, ANBOUND has already drawn a clear conclusion based on geopolitical state of affairs that although tensions still existed and Russian troops were still deployed on the border, the Russian-Ukrainian war crisis is already over. Therefore, Sullivan's warning on February 11 poses enormous pressure on ANBOUND.
In this regard, after conducting short-period analysis, ANBOUND concluded and immediately responded that Sullivan's remarks may be based on false information, and these remarks themselves are excessive political statements. His speech indeed, is false information, which will seriously affect the credibility of the U.S. government. ANBOUND's attitude and judgment on this matter are clear. Although a large number of media coverages now indicates that war is about to break out, the current information analyses remain confusing. From the past to the present, various news reports and information sources do not show signs of imminent war, and these information features do not support Sullivan's assertion. Hence, I maintain my judgement that Russia will not attack Ukraine.
On February 12, President Joe Biden had another phone call with Putin. Reportedly, Biden threatened Russia would pay "a terrible price" and face devastating economic consequences if it invaded Ukraine. Biden's press release appeared to convince the world that Putin had conceded because of his threats, but in reality, it was Biden who agreed to withdraw some U.S. troops from Ukraine at once.
There are still many news reports that we can refer to. Before Biden spoke with Putin, Moscow had worked very hard to launch a comprehensive information feedback, in order to explain to the world that there would not be any war. It appears that the whole world is clamoring that Russia is going to wage a war against Ukraine, and that only Russia and Ukraine themselves do not join in the uproar. Earlier on February 12, the Kremlin emphasized that this was just a "propaganda campaign" launched by the U.S. The Ukrainian President is said to have asked the U.S. government to provide evidence of an imminent Russian attack, and the latter refuses such a demand.
History may eventually provide further explanations on what actually happened on this day. We do not know if other think tanks around the world are capable of making such professional predictions and judgments, but obviously if the answer is "no" then the wave of panic will intensify. It would be hard for the paranoid caused by the U.S. government's security team to fade away. People must have many questions to ask, one of which is likely to be how much the U.S. government can be trusted, and if its operation team is really composed of mature and reliable experts.
COVID-19 has already brought enough troubles to the world, and life is hard. I sincerely hope that such a thing would not happen again.
