Newsletter By 2021-09-30
The world appears to be its darkest hour, as it loses its sense of direction. All that can be seen are problems, troubles, predicaments and unspeakable anxiety. The first is that Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) remains uncertain, then the crisis of the evacuation of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. In addition, China has adopted the most costly method to prevent the outbreak, mainly by the means of testing and lockdown. This of course means the cessation of economic activities, which has affected not only the country itself, but also international trade. It is even harder to imagine how bad the economy would be in 2022. Globalization comes to the low point, but the main driving forces are the aging population, the reorganization of financial relations, and the restructuring of global production relations. From the perspective of historical realism, to get out of such predicament, the world would only rely on courageous, capable leaders, not political talents shaped by elite education, said
Chan Kung, founder of ANBOUND.
>>The theory of "upstream industry" means that, under the condition of excess capital, due to a large amount of capital investment, a large explosion of demand has spawned, which tightens the consumer side. This in turn, causes the upstream side of the production side to garner greater pricing power and voice. This theoretical explanation is based on the long-term follow-up study of capital surplus activities, and the
Crisis Triangle model that urbanization will inevitably lead to the expansion of capital, causing excess capital, and even economic crises including financial crises. The theory of "upstream industry" is not merely an academic exercise, but significantly impacts on strategic policies.
>>The Trump and the Biden administrations have delivered more stimulus in two short years than that the economy can absorb. According to the observations and analysis from
Gail D. Fosler, President for The GailFosler Group, former President and Trustee of The Conference Board, and Frank Zuroski, Economic Analyst for The GailFosler Group, the consumers have built up a backlog of pent-up demand that could support many quarters of above-trend spending, which the influx of relief payments and accumulated market income will help finance. Benefits from the Child Credit and Earned Income Tax Credit, passed in the American Rescue Plan Act of 2021, will pay out largely in 2022. These funds were not tightly targeted to pandemic relief but represented general support for Americans, American families, and social equity.
>>Higher education is a critical contributor to the U.S. economy and culture, attracting billions of international talents every year. The COVID-19 pandemic has unavoidably created a shock within higher education, especially for international students. Most institutions closed their campuses and moved their courses online while navigating varying safety and health standards, as well as taking on increased technical and organizational challenges. Consequently, despite that most schools have been working hard to update protocols and make digital transitions, there was an overall drop in international student economic value in two decades evaluated by NAFTA. As international students search for new opportunities, more than 42k jobs and $1.8 billion are lost in the economy.
Joyce Liu, analyst at Econsult Solutions, Inc. (ESI), talks how the U.S. higher education institutions can stay competitive in the post-COVID world.
>>The spread of COVID-19 and geopolitical factors, while depressing the economy, stimulated the growth of the semiconductor industry, creating a "supercycle" by prolongating the boom period. Some of semiconductor chip makers have started to push for price increases, citing rising raw material costs and longer production cycles. ANBOUND’s industry researchers noted for now, this semiconductor "supercycle" is likely to last one to three years, peaking around 2023, after which industrial growth is likely to slow. Due to the increase in demand in the current cycle, even if the pandemic will be over, there are stable new demands in the future. The semiconductor market will retain a considerable size, while its growth rate slows down.
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