Newsletter By 2022-04-22
【Judgement & Forecast】The Russia-Ukraine war will change the total global food supply and the flow of its exports. There are greater uncertainties on grain production, transaction, trade, and transportation. Due to the cyclical nature of agriculture, the structural characteristic of supply and demand, the impact of the war on the global grain trade may be progressive in stages. This scenario would be changed, if the situation further deteriorates. Considering that the global food market was already highly tense even before the war and a reduction in supply, prices continue soaring, regional or perhaps worldwide food crisis would emerge soon.
>> With the fundamental changes in the underlying logic of China's economy, its policy focus will be more equitable. Not only must industries adapt to the new economic rationale, but policy formulation and its implementation should also be more vigilant. Ensuring sufficient supply and effective demand will be a challenge for hte sustainable economic growth. Concernedly, as policy influence is expanding, so do the risks posed by policy excesses. The current policy does not stress "one-size-fits-all" but rather "precise regulation", it is often strenuous to achieve "moderate" and "balance" in the capacity of policy implementation. Meanwhile, the regulatory risks made by excessive administration power increase that will consequently dampen economic activities. Under the expanding effects, policymakers should be more cautious to prevent a ruin or excessive intervention in the market and businesses.
>>In the report
Individual Differences in Resistance to Truth Decay published by
RAND Corporation, the researchers address one of Truth Decay's proposed drivers: characteristics of human cognitive processing, such as cognitive biases. The authors describe development of a survey measure that they used to examine characteristics of human cognitive processing (such as cognitive biases) and assess the results for individuals' resistance or susceptibility to Truth Decay. The authors focused on six Truth Decay measures: endorsement of scientific consensus, endorsement of verifiable facts, rejection of false conspiracy theories, distinguishing fact from opinion, willingness to accept expert recommendations, and philosophical positivism versus skepticism. The survey used six measures of cognitive biases and reasoning: numeracy, scientific reasoning, magical reasoning, availability bias, unjustified confidence, and ingroup bias.
As high inflation and monetary policies being tightened by major central banks, the markets might perceive a trend of "double tightening". The external environment deteriorates further. While adhering to the "self-oriented" monetary policy, China remains to highlight the importance of its economic growth stable, keep on monitoring potential risks and the evolution. The implementation of the "risk-prevention" policy will cope with the possible unstable market. Economists at ANBOUND discussed that the government would strengthen the stability of the RMB, and guide the economy to a "soft landing" as sooner as possible. That is the basis for a toolkit of financial policies that cover exchange rate, interest rate and capital control.
>>Under the backdrop of establishing a larger, unified national market, capital expansion would be an indispensable key. This requires "unified" and "effective" infrastructure, market rules, and regulatory standards. How to achieve the goal? The approach is to establish a multi-level and multi-dimensional market mechanism that could include various characteristics. It necessitates a diverse market ecology, as well as regulatory tolerance and patience. In the view of ANBOUND researchers, the capital market as part of resources shall be reinforced so as to have a stronger foundation. It makes a difference, also create positive chances for the Chinese market to grow and upgrade.
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