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  • Cai Fang (蔡昉)
    Born : September , 1956Gender : Male
Scholar
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Occupation

Vice-President, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences. Member of the Standing Committee and Deputy Director of the Agricultural & Rural Affairs Committee of the 13th National People’s Congress of China.

Education

Educated from Renmin University of China, the Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and doctor of economics

Experience

1976.03-1978.10, educated youth of Fengbo commune, Shunyi County, Beijing

1978.10-1982.09, study in Agricultural Economics Department of Renmin University of China

1982.09-1985.08, got his master degree in rural development, Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

1985.08-1992.11, researcher of Rural Development Research Institute of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and head of Rural Development Theory Research Office (during which: 1986.10-1989.08: Ph.D. in Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Social Sciences; 1988.10: associate researcher)

1992.11-1993.08, Director of rural development theory research office, Rural Development Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

1993.08-1998.09, Deputy Director of Institute of population, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

1998.09-2014.07, Director of Institute of population, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (during which: May 2006.05-2007.05: served as the deputy director of the south to North Water Diversion Project middle route Trunk Line Engineering Construction Management Bureau (middle route Bureau) and the deputy director of Caohe engineering construction management department)

2014.07- 2014.09, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, member of the Party group and director of the Institute of population and labor economy 2014.09-2017.04, vice president and member of the Party group of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

2017.04-2018.03, served as vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, member of the Party group, and President of the Silk Road Research Institute. Since 2018.03, vice chairman of the agriculture and Rural Committee of the 13th National People's Congress, member of the Standing Committee of the 13th National People's Congress, vice president and member of the Party group of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, and President of the Silk Road Research Institute.

Contribution

In 1998, he was awarded the title of "young and middle-aged experts with outstanding contributions" at the national level.

In 2003, he was awarded the outstanding achievement award by 7 ministries and commissions. Winner of the 4th China Development hundred people award. Fourth China Rural Development Research Award. It was selected as one of the "100 economists who have influenced the economic construction of new China in 60 years".

On February 8, 2009, he and Tan Chongtai, Wu Jinglian, Liu Zunyi, Yao Yang, Hu Biliang and other scholars won the second outstanding achievement award of Zhang Peigang's development economics research.

Notable Works|Publications

A former chief editor of the Chinese Population Sciences magazine, Cai later directed the academy's Institute of Population Studies.

He is the co-author of "The Miracle of China, Development Strategy and Economic Reform," "The Chinese Ongoing Agricultural Economic Reform," and "Competition, Policy Burden and Reform of State-Owned Enterprises" with Lin Yifu and Li Tong.

He is the author of "China's dual economy and labor force transfer - theoretical analysis and policy recommendations", "Crossroads choice - thinking about deepening the reform of agricultural economic system", "Economics of the poor" and "China's labor market development and transformation", etc.


Lin,Justin,Fang Cai and Li Zhou (2003)The China Miracle: Development Strategy and Economic Reform,Hong Kong: Chinese University Press,revised.

Yang,Dennis and Fang Cai (2003) The Political Economy of China’s Rural-Urban Divide,In Nicholas C.

Hope,Dennis Tao Yang and Mu Yang Li (eds.) How Far Across the River: Chinese Policy Reform at the Millennium,Stanford,California: Stanford University Press.

Cai,Fang and Dewen Wang (2003) Migration As Marketization: What Can We Learn from China’s 2000 Census Data?,The China Review,Vol. 3,No. 2 (Fall),pages 73-93.

Huang,Yiping,Fang Cai and Tina Chen (2004) Private Enterprise Development in Rural China,in Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song (eds.),China’s Third Economic Transformation: The Rise of the Private Economy,London and New York: RoutledgeCurzon Taylor & Francis Group.

Cai,Fang (2004) The Consistency of China's Statistics on Employment: Stylized Facts and Implications for Public Policies,The Chinese Economy,Vol. 37,No. 5 (September-October),pp. 74 – 89.

Cai,Fang and Dewen Wang (2004) Readjustment of Macroeconomic Policy and Growth of Farmers’ Income,The Chinese Economy,Vol. 37,No. 2.

Cai,Fang and Meiyan Wang (2004),Irregular Employment and the Growth of the Labor Market: An Explanation of Employment Growth in China’s Cities and Towns,The Chinese Economy,Vol. 37,No. 2.

Cai,Fang and Yang Du (2004) Labour Market Integration: Evidence from Wage Convergence in Manufacturing,in Garnaut and Song (eds) China: Is Rapid Growth Sustainable,Canberra: Asia Pacific Press.

Cai,Fang and Dewen Wang (2005) China’s Demographic Transition: Implications for Growth,in Garnaut and Song (eds) The China Boom and Its Discontents,Canberra: Asia Pacific Press.

Cai,Fang,Meiyan Wang and Yang Du (2005) China’s Labor Market on Crossroad,China and World Economy,Vol. 13,No. 1.

Cai,Fang and Dewen Wang (2006) Employment Growth,Labour Scarcity and the Nature of China’s Trade Expansion,in Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song (eds.),The Turning Point in China’s Economic Development,Canberra: Asia Pacific Press.

Cai,Fang (2006) Choosing a Growth Pattern that Suits the Present Development Stage,China Economist,No. 3 (July),pp. 80-88.

Cai,Fang and Meiyan Wang (2006) Challenge facing China’s Economic Growth in Its Aging but not Affluent Era,China & World Economy,Vol. 14,Issue. 5,pp. 23-31.

Cai,Fang,John Giles and Xin Meng (2006) How Well Do Children Insure Parents against Low Retirement Income? An Analysis Using Survey Data from Urban China,Journal of Public Economics,90: 2229–2255.

Giles,John,Albert Park and Fang Cai (2006) Reemployment of Dislocated Workers in Urban China: The Roles of Information and Incentives,Journal of Comparative Economics,34: 582–607.

Giles,John,Albert Park and Fang Cai (2006) How has Economic Restructuring Affected China’s Urban Workers? The China Quarterly,Vol. 185,pp. 61-95.

Cai,Fang (2007) Pay-Back Time for China’s One-Child Policy,Far East Economic Review,May.

Cai,Fang,Albert Park and Yaohui Zhao (2008) The Chinese Labor Market in the Reform Era,in Loren Brandt and Thomas Rawski (eds.) China’s Great Economic Transformation,Cambridge University Press.

Cai,Fang(2007)Rural Urban Income Gap and Critical Point of Institutional Change,Economic Change and Restructuring,40: 189-206.

Du,Yang,Fang Cai,and Meiyan Wang (2007) Labor Demand in China: Comparison between Fast Growing Regions and Others,The Indian Journal of Labour Economics,Vol.50,No.3,July Sep.

Wang,Dewen,Cai Fang and Gao Wenshu (2007) Globalisation and the shortage of rural workers: a macroeconomic perspective,in Nielsen,Ingrid,Russell Smyth and Marika Vicziany (eds.) Globalisation and Labour Mobility in China,Clayton,Australia: Monash University Press,pp. 19-37.

Cai,Fang,Yang Du and Changbao Zhao (2007) Regional Labour Market Integration since China’s World Trade Organization Entry: Evidence from Household-level Data,in Garnaut,Ross and Ligang Song (eds) China – Linking Markets for Growth,Canberra: Asia Pacific Press,pp. 133-150.

Wang,Meiyan and Fang Cai (2008) Gender Earnings Differential in Urban China,Review of Development Economics,12⑵,442–454.

Cai,Fang (2008) Approaching a Triumphal Span: How Far Is China Towards its Lewisian Turning Point? UNU-WIDER Research PaperNo. 2008/09.

Cai,Fang and Meiyan Wang (2008) A Counterfactual Analysis on Unlimited Surplus Labor in Rural China, China & World Economy,Vol.16,No.1,pp.51-65.

Cai,Fang and Yang Du (2008) The Political Economy of Emissions Reduction in China: Are Incentives for Low Carbon Growth Compatible? in Song,Ligang and Wing Thye Woo (eds) China’s Dilemma: Economic Growth,the Environment and Climate Change,Asia Pacific Press and Brookings Institution Press and Social Sciences Academic Press (China),pp. 226-242.

Wang,Meiyan and Fang Cai (2008) Gender Earnings Differential in Urban China,Review of Development Economics,Vol.12,No.2.

Cai,Fang and Dewen Wang (2008) Impacts of Internal Migration on Economic Growth and Urban Development in China,in DeWind,Josh and Jennifer Holdaway (eds) Migration and Development Within and Across Borders: Research and Policy Perspectives on Internal and International Migration,New York:IOM International Organization for Migration and The Social Science Research Council,pp. 245-272.

Cai,Fang,Justin Yifu Lin,and Yong Cao (2009) The Chinese Economy: Reform and Development,McGraw-Hill.

Cai,Fang,Dewen Wang and Qu Yue (2009) Flying Geese within Borders: How Does China Sustain Its Labour-intensive Industries,in Garnaut,Ross,Ligang Song and Wing Thye Woo (eds) China’s New Place in a World in Crisis: Economic,Geopolitical and Environmental Dimensions,Canberra: ANU E Press,Brookings Institution Press,Social Sciences Academic Press (China),pp. 209-232.

Cai,Fang (ed.)(2009) The China Population and Labor Yearbook Volume 1: The Approaching Lewis Turning Point and Its Policy Implications,Leiden·Boston: Brill.

Cai,Fang and Meiyan Wang (2009) China’s Process of Aging before Getting Rich,in Cai,Fang (ed.) The China Population and Labor Yearbook Volume 1: The Approaching Lewis Turning Point and Its Policy Implications,Leiden·Boston: Brill.

Wang,Meiyan and Cai Fang (2009) Transforming Unemployment Shock into Labor Market Development,in Cai,Fang (ed.) The China Population and Labor Yearbook Volume 1: The Approaching Lewis Turning Point and Its Policy Implications,Leiden·Boston: Brill.

Cai,Fang and Meiyan Wang (2009) Labor Cost Increase and Growth Pattern Transition,in Cai,Fang (ed.) The China Population and Labor Yearbook Volume 1: The Approaching Lewis Turning Point and Its Policy Implications,Leiden·Boston: Brill.

Cai,Fang and Meiyan Wang (2009) The Counterfactuals of Unlimited Surplus Labor in Rural China,in Cai,Fang (ed.) The China Population and Labor Yearbook Volume 1: The Approaching Lewis Turning Point and Its Policy Implications,Leiden·Boston: Brill.

Wang,Dewen and Fang Cai (2009) Migration and Poverty Alleviation in China,in Murphy,Rachel (eds) Labour Migration and Social Development in Contemporary China,London and New York: Routledge,Taylor & Francis Group,pp. 17-46.

Cai,Fang and Meiyan Wang (2009) Proactive Employment Policy and Labor Market Development,in Wang,Mengkui (eds) China in the Wake of Asia’s Financial Crisis,London and New York: Routledge,pp. 178-195.

Cai,Fang,Yang Du and Meiyan Wang (2009) Migration and Labor Mobility in China,Human Development Research Paper,No. 9,New York: United Nations Development Programme,Human Development Report Office.

Cai,Fang and Kam Wing Chan (2009) The Global Economic Crisis and Unemployment in China,Eurasian Geography and Economics,Vol. 50,No. 5,pp. 513-531.


Main Opnions

"Dislike some of my peers, I never see economic research as a means to get rich, but as a way of life: Economic Research at work as a career, and economic thinking at rest as leisure. Like all kinds of other knowledge, economics is broad and profound, which is hard to know in a poor life. It's not appropriate to say that happiness is in the pursuit of such an unattainable goal, but you can always be in the pursuit of sorrow or joy and worry about gain and loss. And this is life. The economist teahouse links me with my colleagues in the economic circle and friends outside my profession to share this bitter and happy life style. It is a club without walls and without membership fee. The club is full of visitors from all over the world. We can drink the cup of tea that economics can't understand. " ————Cai Fang

Controversy

Cai Fang's point of view is that the reason why China's economic growth began to slow down after 2012 is the "reversal change" of population factors, which is embodied in the fact that the working age population began to turn into negative growth, and the population dependency ratio increased rapidly, resulting in the loss of China's "population dividend".

Lin Yifu pointed out to Cai Fang that population change is a slow variable, while China's economic growth rate after 2010 is a fast phenomenon. It is impossible to explain the fast phenomenon with a slow variable.

In response to this, Cai Fang said, "although the population change rate in a specific year may not directly change the economic growth rate, the trend of production factor supply and productivity increase caused by the population change stage indicates that the change in the economic development stage will inevitably change the potential growth rate."

Cai Fang also said that "the long-term inevitability is often not been shown slowly, but always under the influence of a special short-term incentive, which is related to the failure to make a correct judgment on the long-term inevitability."

For many years, Lin Yifu has held the view that "external and cyclical factors are the main reason" for the slowdown of China's economic growth since 2010.

In this view, Cai Fang said that Lin Yifu ignored the role of population factors in economic growth and the characteristics of "old before rich". He believes that in predicting the trend of economic growth rate, the periodic characteristics of population transformation are a factor that cannot be ignored.

Therefore, Cai Fang proposed that the high-speed economic growth of more than 30 years before the slowdown of China's economic growth was highly dependent on the population dividend, and the early and rapid disappearance of the population dividend would eventually show a decline in the potential growth rate, "the potential growth rate of China's economy needs to be estimated in another way. Compared with Lin Yifu's research, it is inevitable to get inconsistent prediction results, which leads to different policy implications. " He wrote.

 

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