Three Possible Scenarios in the U.S.-China Relations
theory toolbox is often discussed within the context of the relationship
between the United States and China, and methodological approaches of wargames
are used to analyze problems within it. In fact, information analysis can be
quite useful in this regard. In terms of the outcome of U.S.-China relations,
three possibilities have been deduced here, and their veracity will be tested by
Scenario 1: War
this scenario, China and the United States will be in a confrontational
relationship where the two confront each other to the end, as advocated in Trumpism.
The outcome of this scenario would be intensive warfare between the two powers.
That said, the probability of this scenario remains doubtful, as it requires
long-term proof for conclusion to be formed.
Scenario 2: Peaceful Co-Existence
scenario suggests that the United States and China will be in peaceful
co-existence relations. The rivalry between the two will be limited to each of
them attempting to outdo another. This is the international policy advocated by
Henry Kissinger and the like, and it is also the direction taken by the Biden administration
now. In the negotiations between the two powers, the conditions offered by the
U.S. are not well received by China, though there are signs that this is
changing as the U.S. is revising the conditions.
Scenario 3: Neither war nor peaceful co-existence
third possible scenario postulates that both the United States and China set
the barriers to each other, forming their own blocks. While they do co-exist,
they would be in a long-term rivalry and competitive relations. This third
scenario is the most likely outcome that will eventually take place in the U.S.-China
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