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Thursday, July 08, 2021
Three Possible Scenarios in the U.S.-China Relations
Chan Kung

Simulation theory toolbox is often discussed within the context of the relationship between the United States and China, and methodological approaches of wargames are used to analyze problems within it. In fact, information analysis can be quite useful in this regard. In terms of the outcome of U.S.-China relations, three possibilities have been deduced here, and their veracity will be tested by time.

Scenario 1: War

In this scenario, China and the United States will be in a confrontational relationship where the two confront each other to the end, as advocated in Trumpism. The outcome of this scenario would be intensive warfare between the two powers. That said, the probability of this scenario remains doubtful, as it requires long-term proof for conclusion to be formed.

Scenario 2: Peaceful Co-Existence

This scenario suggests that the United States and China will be in peaceful co-existence relations. The rivalry between the two will be limited to each of them attempting to outdo another. This is the international policy advocated by Henry Kissinger and the like, and it is also the direction taken by the Biden administration now. In the negotiations between the two powers, the conditions offered by the U.S. are not well received by China, though there are signs that this is changing as the U.S. is revising the conditions.

Scenario 3: Neither war nor peaceful co-existence

The third possible scenario postulates that both the United States and China set the barriers to each other, forming their own blocks. While they do co-exist, they would be in a long-term rivalry and competitive relations. This third scenario is the most likely outcome that will eventually take place in the U.S.-China relations.

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