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Saturday, July 10, 2021
Judgment and Prediction: Withdrawal of U.S. Troops from Afghanistan and Its Impacts
Chan Kung

With President Joe Biden announcing the withdrawal of military forces from Afghanistan by August 31, thereby ending U.S. operations in Afghanistan.

Biden’s speech of the withdrawal has drawn much criticism. This begs one to wonder the future development of the U.S. military, and the scenarios below are likely to happen:

1. The global deployment of the U.S. military will face constraints, as there will be lack of support from its allies. Incidents from the Iranian Revolution to Republic of Vietnam, and now in Afghanistan have all proven that the U.S. is an unreliable ally. Unless there is no other option, countries in the world will have to weigh the consequences of participating in, or allowing U.S. large-scale military intervention.

2. The U.S. Army may have to be reorganized. While being a professional global military, the U.S. military can no longer continue to be deployed in the world due to political reasons, and this could even make the U.S. Army look outmoded. Therefore, it is expected that the U.S. military will have large-scale reorganization and disarmament in the future. As for its competition with China, this would be nothing more than mere talks.

3. The Taliban might claim that it has defeated the United States and its military. These will have a great impact on the morale of the U.S. military. After the Vietnam War, the U.S. military had experienced a period of low morale, and it only gradually recovered after the successful Panama invasion.

4. The U.S. military appears to lose its freedom of movement surrounding the "World Island”. This is mainly because there are more and more powers are present in the region, such as Iran, Israel, Turkey, Russia, India, China, North Korea, and so on. Although they may not be able to defeat the U.S. military, they are obviously more influential in terms of containment. If the U.S. military fails to uproot the Taliban, how then can it defeat these well-organized countries?

5. A technological revolution is about to take place in the U.S. military equipment. The fact that the U.S. Army will become a special force and that it will intervene over long distances may lead to new demands for new arm equipment, and will eventually lead to a new wave of equipment technological revolution.

6. The U.S. military command system will see changes. This is especially true in the U.S. Army, where its command system will adapt to the changes according to the mission. If in the future the U.S. interventions of global affairs are mainly navy and air force, the corresponding command system will also change accordingly.

Biden's troop withdrawal from Afghanistan has brought about a series of impacts. Although the withdrawal is of political reasons, the Biden administration has in fact nothing to gain politically. On the contrary, the move is largely being criticized. On the top of that, Central Asia is left fragmented in crisis and the Taliban is transforming to become a state from being an organization.

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