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Monday, August 16, 2021
ANBOUND's Observation: Progress of War in Afghanistan
ANBOUND

2021-08-14

With Biden administration announced the withdrawal of all U.S. troops on August 31, the Afghan war has entered a new turning point. By tracking the photos taken in Afghanistan, we are able to observe various aspects of the war, and through information analyses we can now construct an overall picture.

We have reached some conclusions in regard to tribal guerrilla warfare in Afghanistan:

The Afghan war is basically a tribal war. Such mode of war has remained the same from ancient times to the present. Its low-level combat units consist of groups of three or five people, often come from the same nuclear families, and they gather in answering to the call of their spiritual leaders in the village to form low-level combat units. Such units come from various villages, but they are usually located in the same region. They gather and attack following the direction indicated by the regional, higher spiritual leaders, thereby establishing combative army.

They have simply dietary habit, and rely mostly on water and bread for long-term battles. They bring their own ammunitions, and these can be traded or used as reinforcement. Their weapons are often the simplest and easy to carry, such as automatic rifles, 1-10 ammunition clips, a few grenades, and RPG rocket grenades. There are of course, explosive and even C4. Sometimes, the Taliban’s armed forces also have seized equipment, such as AT4 rocket launchers and Humvees, but these "advanced equipment" are usually very difficult to maintain, so it is estimated that the actual effect is less than satisfactory, and they are often used for one time only. They use the simplest weapons and are not afraid of sacrificing for their faith, hence they can fight for a long time under harsh conditions, provided that the information channels are still sound and the directions are still clear.

Information communication in tribal warfare is extremely vital, as it enables the war participants to interact and support each other on the basis of mutual trust. The tools used are basic, such as walkie-talkies and mobile phones. From the battlefield photos, it appears that the walkie-talkies used are commercial handsets that can set up channels. This shows that the range of use is within 5 kilometers, indicating that even the size of the "army" gathered is often a company-level or battalion-level combat team, a team of dozens or hundreds of people, which forms the backbone of the Taliban armed units.

From this kind of armed units, as long as the direction is simple and clear, they can also converge and infiltrate from all directions toward their target. This mode of tribal guerrilla warfare is not always effective. The problem is that the Afghan government forces are also inefficient.

That begs questions on the training provided by the U.S. military to the Afghan government forces. Are these trainings for regular warfare or for guerrilla warfare? If it is training in regular warfare, coupled with the cooperation of corruption and bureaucratic system, then under the current mode of tribal guerrilla warfare, the Afghan government forces would definitely fall apart. Yet, if the battle focuses on an area that can be assembled and responded to, then theoretically regular warfare training will have a certain military effect. If the training focuses on the mode of guerrilla warfare, then as the war progresses, there would be the emergence of various combat-effective military units. This means that "military leaders" with certain successful experience and capabilities will emerge and occupy their respective territories, where they will also assemble personnel and control them. This will of course, lay the foundation for the emergence of so-called "warlords". Indeed, this is the original basis of tribal guerrilla warfare.

The final question will boil down to one point, i.e. Kabul. The Turkish intervention, U.S. bombing, and the capability of the Afghan government forces all have little role in this now. Instead, the Battle of Kandahar is a critical turning point for judgment. If the Afghan government loses Kandahar, this proves the combat forces gathered by the Taliban are capable of capturing and controlling large Afghan cities like Kandahar. For the Afghan government, the loss of Kandahar would prove that the army has no combat effectiveness and lacks the support of the grassroots. Moreover, the government army would definitely be corrupt and its morale is low by taking the initiative to abandon many important positions.

Under such circumstance, then it is not a problem of the army, and Kabul would fall in any case. The Taliban are no strangers to the situation in Kabul, and they have occupied Kabul in the past. Currently the Taliban, according to the latest information, have just occupied Maidan Shar, and now the Taliban force is merely 15 kilometers away from Kabul.

The current Taliban’s advancement towards Kabul is unstoppable. Apart from knowing that the Taliban is different from others on a moral level and often condemning them, the world actually knows little about them. The world, including the United States, Europe, and China at one point of time in the past thought that Afghanistan’s problem was just about "economic reconstruction". Therefore, a lot of money was spent in Afghanistan to provide education, training, projects, and investment, and even a World Bank graduate who was familiar with economic development was chosen to be the Afghan government leader. Of course, it is the same countries now who discovered that they have made huge mistakes, and the people of Afghanistan and the people of other countries are paying a huge price of this. The cost of war in the United States alone has reached trillions of dollars.

2021-08-15 09:37:12

The final moment of the war in Afghanistan is fast approaching. One opinion says that the Taliban occupied Kabul in 1996 without much battles and left the city in 2001, again without much battles. When Afghan militias see that their side is losing, they disappear. There is also an opinion that the Taliban needs a spokesperson in international politics, so they will retain the Afghan government and President Ashraf Ghani as their spokespersons.

2021-08-15 18:06:29

The U.S.'s intelligence and analysis errors are apparent. It appears that ANBOUND is the only organization that issued timely warning after the Taliban captured Maidan Shar. A day ago, newspapers in the United States and around the world were reporting that American intelligence personnel believed that the Afghan government might lose power within 90 days. It turns out that the Afghan government has collapsed the next day.

2021-08-16 09:13:49

Some assessments can be made on the situation in Afghanistan:

1. The Taliban's primary goal now is to resolve the issue of its legitimacy. The large number of Western personnel at Kabul Airport is a bargaining chip, so is the "inclusive government" that it proposes. If the West recognizes that the Taliban is cooperative, then the Taliban will succeed. It is also possible that the West might change its stance after the hostages departed from the airport. Yet, the Taliban would then emerge as the winner on the internet.

2. Most of the military and civilians in Afghanistan made choices with actions. They abandoned the original Afghan government and chose the Taliban. This is a kind of democratic decision.

3. What happened in Afghanistan is only the beginning, as the internal stability of the Taliban is still wanting. For a tribal society like Afghanistan, regardless how powerful the Pashtuns are, they can only account for 60% of the population. The forces of remaining 40% of Uzbeks, Tajiks, and Hazaras should be considered as well, hence the Taliban wishes to establish an Islamic Emirate and proposed an inclusive government.

4. Among Western countries, the United States is definitely the target now. It is estimated that in the coming period, internal reviews in various countries will be unavoidable, not to mention that there will be election in the United States before long.

5. There is a high probability that Afghanistan will follow an independent path and engage in balanced diplomacy in the future. This poses some points worthy of reflection, as even the Taliban might take such decision, showing that the key to be competitive is to possess international perspective.

6. As long as the Taliban maintain their current caliber and the West remains not too arrogant, then the hostage crisis at Kabul Airport and the people trapped in it can still be resolved. The possibility of actual large-scale fighting is unlikely, as both parties do not wish to engage in such battles now.

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