As the global situation now sees
drastic changes, what happens in Afghanistan has become the latest focus in
international geopolitics and it will continuously impact the world. This, however,
does not change the basic pattern of U.S.-China relations, the most critical
bilateral relationship that affects the long-term world situation. The reasons
why such a relationship
has reached its present state are
very complex as there are several
key stages to this evolution.
ANBOUND’s founder Chan Kung has recently put forward his personal views and
made some basic judgments on the future possibilities of U.S.-China
First of all, U.S.-China relations are in the current state because of
the trade negotiations between the two countries. When the Trump administration
radically reversed the United States’ stance toward China, American society
began to reconsider its relationship with Beijing.
critical stage in the relations is
the Hong Kong issue, which has a significant impact on both the upper class and
the lower class in the United
States. This demonstrates a stepwise evolutionary process in U.S.-China ties,
which does not occur overnight, and
such circumstances pose fresh opportunities for Taiwan and Singapore to rise.
U.S.-China relations will not change with the arrival of a new U.S. President, and we can foresee this situation
will continue on the same path for
a long time, as Chan Kung has spoken
about it even during the Trump era.
Note that Trump is still an intrusion into American politics and
society, and "Trumpism" without Trump symbolizes conservative beliefs
and stances that are the fundamental value promoted by the Republican Party.
Such Trumpism will exist in the United States for a longer time.
United States will not decouple from
China immediately and comprehensively in the economy, as this will bring huge
losses. The United States has realized this, and Europe also understands this.
However, economic issues can affect politics, but they cannot determine
politics, especially when viewed in the historical period. The overall relationship between China
and the Western world is currently in an unfavorable situation. When talking about ideological
issues, we must realize that political reality is not the same as the verbal
statements of politicians. In international relations, whoever emphasizes that
they will not change their positions is likely to become the party that really wants to decouple.
China's economy and politics completely decouple from the world? Although China
denies this in its official policy, it is theoretically possible. However, even
if the conditions are met, this process will take some time. The world economy
must have a transitional period. This will only happen after India and ASEAN
countries like Vietnam can replace China's industrial supply to the world and
maintain the balance of the supply chain, and this may take about 10 years.
Unless major events continue to interfere with this process (i.e. the Taiwan
Strait issues, India-China relations, and the violent conflicts on the Diaoyu
Islands between China and Japan), this will be the expected trend.
China is actually in the process of gradual decoupling, and this is manifested domestically with dual-circulation. If
political interferences can be avoided, the time for maintaining the
dual-circulation will be longer; yet if such interferences are amplified, the
decoupling process will be shortened, and the dual-circulation will become
single circulation. If China adopts the strategy of "separation of
politics and economy" during this transitional period, under the
circumstance that politics does not interfere with the economy, it will be
beneficial to the Chinese business community where China can still maintain
external economic cooperation for a certain time. However, if the reverse happens, then external benefits are
likely to end sooner.
rise of nationalism in China is within the control of the core circle of
Chinese policymakers. Any
country would be influenced by nationalist sentiments, yet nationalism should
be in a balanced state. In China today, nationalism is not in a balanced state. This
"imbalance" may be related to the policy level's desire to advance
some of China's goals too quickly. ANBOUND has stated previously that China’s
major problems are related to the country attempting to advance its policies
and measures too hastily, and as a
result, there is such an imbalance state.
finance and capital are very passive in the process of China's decoupling from
the world, thus the focus has to be on the Chinese market, which is determined
by the nature of the service industry. In other words, the idea of using
foreign capital to develop the Chinese market and using China’s prosperity as a
bargaining chip to exchange for capital will no longer be practical, as this
model is already outdated
the changes facing the corporate world are enormous. Unlike during the era of globalization, the age
of free market is over now, and what is needed in the future is the project
market. While entrepreneurs still aim to make money, there is very little room
for them to do so according
to their will. What enterprises can do is to follow the development of the
policy, then they
might be able to achieve their
aims in the market for projects based on policy goals.
is unlikely for Chinese entrepreneurs to leave China and seek greener pastures;
at least this is not quite possible for most well-known entrepreneurs, hence
their future development will still be in China. The level of judgment of
Chinese entrepreneurs is insufficient for
them to develop smoothly in the global market. In the past, some senior private
entrepreneurs once advised Chinese entrepreneurs not to engage in politics
while making money. Such a view
is proven to be wrong, and in the current era, Chinese entrepreneurs will have
to pay attention to politics, as economic development now follows the progress
there will be a huge impact of restrictions on technology. At present, most parts
of China’s science and technology are still imported and digested by foreign
capital, but this possibility will become increasingly smaller in the future.
This is because first of all, Russia, which has had long-term cooperation with
China, no longer has advanced technologies to introduce. Secondly, Western countries, which are the source of
technology, have closed their doors to Chinese talents. As Chinese technology digests and integrates
within itself and through an emphasis on innovation strategies, there
will be some progress in the future, but in the incremental part of technology,
the space for progress has been greatly narrowed for geopolitical reasons.
the space for cooperation between Europe and China, it should be remembered
that Europe has a bottom line in its cooperation with China, and this bottom
line is that it can make money from China. If not, then Europe will follow in
the footsteps of the United States. In fact, the root causes of the disruptions in the United States and Europe’s
relations with China are the same.
How likely will the separation of economy and
politics be implemented in China? From an objective point of view, the
possibility is relatively small for now. However, if China can be consistent
from top to bottom, there should be spaces in the market for capitalists which
will allow both China and capitalists to profit.
While China's reforms in education, property, economics and other areas
including the new normal in the economy, structural reforms in strengthening
the supply-side, and pushing for economic transformation and industrial upgrade
are important, they are sometimes done too quickly, which has resulted in
several issues. ANBOUND’s founder Chan Kung has long noted that these problems
in China are related to measures taken at excessively high speed. It is crucial
to understand this, as it is fundamental to the country's macroeconomic policy
and strategic policy regulation.
are developing along a new historical trajectory, which will bring about a new
development environment and risks to China. If China strives to maintain the policy
framework and governance principles of "separation of politics and
economy" while the situation changes, this will help China to gain more
space and longer time under the overall unfavorable international situation.
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