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Thursday, September 16, 2021
Judgment and Prediction: An Observation of Recent Speeches of American Military Leaders
Chan Kung

In a conversion with Brookings Institution’s Senior Fellow Michael O’Hanlon, General John E. Hyten, vice chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, has expressed his worry about China's nuclear modernization, but also said that the U.S.’ goal is “never go to war with Russia, because that day is a horrible day for the planet, and a horrible day for our countries".

In addition, USNI News also reported Hyten said that, “you always have to be concerned about the ‘Thucydides Trap'”, referring to a rising great power and an existing power inevitably come into conflict, leading to war.

Other than Hyten, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley has also made a phone call with the Chinese military earlier and reassured the Chinese side that the U.S. is “not going to attack or conduct any kinetic operations against” China.

Among the many reasons for such reaction from the U.S. military, there are two possibilities. First, although the U.S. military has positioned China as a strategic adversary, this has not been fully followed-up internally within the military, hence there is some confusions in its whole system. In this case, the issue can only be resolved when there is the change of personnel and system restructuring. Second, Biden lacks control over his team members, including the military. At present, some of Biden's major policies have deviated from the original strategic direction of the United States, but Biden himself has not proposed a systematic strategic framework to replace it. This obvious trend can be seen from the Afghanistan issue to U.S.-China military relations. These findings are by no means accidental, but what they ultimately mean requires observation and follow-up research.

The current situation shows that if the chaos in the United States further intensifies, it will be advantageous to China, which will form a strategic window period for the latter. In addition, it is obviously difficult for the United States to gain the support of its allies and form a consensus, because it has no internal consensus, and there are serious contradictions within.

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