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Sunday, October 17, 2021
ANBOUND's View: Some Comments on China's "Eight Strategic Goals"
Chan Kung

On April 21 this year, in the article entitled "China's Military, Diplomacy and Ideology as Top Priorities: Scholar in Beijing Reveals China's Eight Strategic Goals", Professor Shi Yinhong stated that China "desires to achieve something great in the next twenty years, including at least eight goals". It should be pointed out that there are some contradictions between these eight strategic goals and the actual reality, and these will be noted in the comments below.

1: Make China's GDP rank No. 1 in the world;

Comment: This is unlikely, as GDP ranking should be calculated based on exchange rate. When the RMB exchange rate weakens, the goal will be harder to achieve. Nonetheless, this goal might be achieved instantaneously if the exchange rate skyrocketed in an instant.

2. Achieve upper-middle level in national income per capita;

Comment: Due to aging population, the momentum for in growth of income per capita in the future may not be as high as in the past. As there will be lesser work force available, it will be more difficult to increase the income per capita.

3. Upgrade military armed forces and combat power capabilities to among the top in the world;

Comment: Combat power is not the same as armaments, and neither is it equivalent to battle strategy. It is only in real-life warfare that one can see the actual combat power. At present, the Taliban ranks first in the world, and the second is the "Slipper Army" of the Houthi.

4. Attain high-tech R&D and application level that leads or being among the leading countries;

Comment: This is not very likely. As I have mentioned in the past, our contemporary high-tech are all system integration projects. To achieve cutting-edge high-tech, worldwide cooperation is indispensable. Without such cooperation, it may be possible to assemble some equipment, yet the application would be wanting, hence such a scale set by the goal would not be achievable without international cooperation.

5. Unification of the country across the Taiwan Strait;

Comment: There is a higher chance of conflict than unification.

6. Achieve military dominance, even if it is marginal, over the U.S. in the western part of the West Pacific, not including Okinawa and Japan's area;

Comment: This is possible, as the U.S. military is still in the process of retreating and adjusting.

7. Maintain an indestructible strategic military existence in the Eastern Indian Ocean. This does not mean that China wants to dominate the Eastern Indian Ocean, but it is more to maintain a basic strategic existence that is difficult to be destroyed;

Comment: The issue of Indian Ocean cannot be resolved when the Taiwan issue remains irresolvable. Professor Shi will need to understand the location of East Indian Ocean.

8. Have 'top advantages' on the world diplomatic stage, in terms of prestige and ideological influence.

Comment: This is potentially possible.

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