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Wednesday, October 20, 2021
Xi Jinping from a Geopolitical Perspective
Chan Kung

Geopolitics generally refers to strategic games, competition, and confrontation in geopolitics, and especially to changes in the status of the world. If viewed from this perspective, Xi Jinping is undoubtedly one of China's most prominent leaders. This is not an overstatement, but there are concrete evidence and objective facts pointing towards it.

1. Xi Jinping's "philosophy of struggle" is a subversive change from the low-profile policy that has continued since China's reform and opening-up. In the past, China was used to looking up to the West, and now its level-headed attitude is a huge change, but of course it is also a risky geopolitical showdown. That said, in this showdown, China is winning. At least for now, in the geopolitical arena, so to speak, China has won, and China is finally waiting for the most favorable outcome to emerge. This was simply unthinkable in the traditional world order of the past. Although clearly reluctant, the United States has repeatedly stated that it wants to coexist with China, and as two antagonistic and incompatible systems, something rather not possible in the past. Now, this has actually become a realistic policy that the U.S. President has publicly stated.

2. The withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, on which China clearly bet on a "Taliban victory," is a clear risk, but the end result shows that the bet was right, and the U.S. can be said to have shifted its focus back to the maritime region, and may even further back down, at least now having to interact with China and Russia in Central Asia and on regional issues in the world continent. Although whether China will eventually have the experience and ability to consolidate and enhance this strategic victory, and thus reap more benefits, is a separate issue.

3. Concerning the COVID-19 pandemic, China's situation at the beginning was extremely passive, but as time went on, the world became more and more objective towards China. It is not easy for China to avoid being excluded, marginalized or even squeezed out in the "vaccine war", including China's vaccines, which are now accepted.

4. The U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman General Mark Milley's phone conversation on China relations, and its Vice Chairman General John Hyten's words that the U.S> will not go to war with China are shocking to the world. Other countries and regions are deeply affected. The most obvious change in attitude to Japan and Japan's policy orientation is clearly demonstrated in its self-reliance attitude. It is unimaginable that the U.S. military could be forced to make such a gesture in the past, and it is only a step away from publicly acknowledging that China is a "formidable adversary. It is not easy to make an accurate judgment on this issue and to show the courage and determination of policy.

5. The West has backed down on the issue of human rights and admitted that democracy is not exportable. All these things that never happened in the past decades are happening today. China has taken far more drastic measures in Hong Kong than in the past, such as squeezing out all democrats from the parliament, de facto reorganizing the Supreme Court, and arresting a series of people, and in response to these unprecedented actions, the West has done little more than pay lip service to the issue, but has done little of real pressure and stimulus. At present, the voice of rethinking "democratic export is a mistake" has actually become louder in the United States.

6. The Meng Wanzhou incident actually stopped the long-arm jurisdiction of Western law. No matter how the West explains it, they actually understand that this move will allow China's "philosophy of struggle" to gain greater support in China, proving that China's approach to confrontation is effective and that the West will not be able to or will find it difficult to take the same action in the future.

7. The U.S. policy of discontinuity in its trade pressure is clearly being used by China. China signed Trump's trade agreements but not implemented them, and the United States can do nothing but negotiate. At present, although it is not known whether the trade agreements can be completely pushed back, but as long as the United States is willing to start negotiations on this, China has won a big step.

8. Even if the U.S. has the advantage of capital control, it does not dare to take further actions, whether it is swift system, or Hong Kong's linked exchange rate. This obviously points towards China's success.

What Xi does now are things that are unimaginable in the past, and the results are impressive. Of course, China has its own problems, its own challenges to face, and there are also major risks. Those however, are issues to be tackled in the future and they depend on many variable factors, particularly geopolitical factors. From the perspective of geopolitics, China is winning for now. Xi's "philosophy of struggle" will definitely be shown in the 20th National Congress and translated into political influence.

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