While Donald Trump continues to campaign for a second White House run in 2024, his longest-serving White House chief of staff, John Kelly, is skeptical that he will enter the presidential race come 2024. "Trump won't run," Kelly told The Atlantic. "He'll continue talking about it; he may even declare, but he will not run. And the reason is he simply cannot be seen as a loser".

Kelly served as Trump's chief of staff for more than a year and a half, leading the Department of Homeland Security for more than six months in the early days of the Trump administration. He has remained relatively silent since leaving his position at the White House in 2019, but after the January 6 Capitol attack, Kelly criticized it as a direct result of Trump "poisoning people's minds with lies and deceit." While Trump makes occasional public appearances and continues to campaign for another presidential run, some people close to him are skeptical.

Michael Cohen, Trump's former personal attorney, said on Sunday he did not believe Trump had any intention of running because he could not afford to be defeated twice. In an interview with NBC News, Cohen said Trump is constantly campaigning for political contributions. "Yeah, so this should become a documentary, and it should be called the greatest grift in U.S. history. Donald Trump has made it very clear that he is grifting off of the American people, these supporters, these individuals that are just sending money to him at record levels," Cohen said.

Trump lost the 2020 election to President Joe Biden by about 7 million votes, but he has repeatedly claimed widespread voter fraud and systemic irregularities. However, audits of election results in multiple states showed no widespread fraud or irregularities.

Still, Trump retains significant influence over the Republican Party. Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley has said she does not expect others Republicans to run against Trump if he decides to run in 2024.

I myself had conducted analysis on American elections. I believe that the strategy of the Republican Party is to use Trump to stall the Democrats, so that they will devote their attention and resources to Trump, and lay a Trump-free foundation for the Republican Party's general election. For his part, Trump has been more than willing to go along with this Republican strategy, as he can amass resources and money in the process of mobilization and avoid his own financial collapse. So far, the Republican strategy has been successful. The Democrats' reckoning is still focused on the Trump team, but the Democrats have been steadily losing ground in the election.

From the perspective of the general election situation of the Republican Party in the future, American voters would like to see a "moderate gentleman from the Republican Party". The only way for the Republican Party to defeat Biden is to choose a "moderate gentleman" as its presidential candidate. The problem is, no one knows yet who that person will be. On the Republican side, Mike Pence, Mike Pompeo and others have expressed their intention to run. It is expected that other Republicans will later express their intention as well, but it is too early to say who the moderate gentleman will be.