Russia is well aware of China's current status and influence in the world and its status as an "ally" of China, and it has no qualms about taking advantage of China.
When Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that he would attend the Beijing Winter Olympics to show his support for China, he did two more things that seem to be the reward and the price of his support.
First, Russia has formed a de facto military alliance with India. Putin personally visited India to discuss military cooperation and the two countries also held the 21st India-Russia Summit and the first 2+2 dialogue. Moreover, the two countries have reached a series of cooperation agreements to further strengthen their "preferential strategic partnership". Previously, China had repeatedly asked Russia to clarify its strategic partnership and military ties with China, but Russia has refused. Now, Russia is clearly demonstrating that its relationship with India is a real military alliance.
This, of course, is difficult for China to accept. Chinese state media coverage of Putin's visit to India has focused on Russia's attempts to reshape the trilateral relationship between the U.S., Russia, and India, and to defuse the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue that encircle China. This argument, however, could not explain the purpose of the 2+2 dialogue between the two countries' foreign and defense ministers. Especially in the context of the continuous deterioration of China-India relations and the aggravation of border conflicts, the meeting between the defense ministers of the two countries obviously involves more than just the arms deal.
Amid the military stand-off between China and India on the border, Indian media pointed out bluntly that the weapons purchased by India from Russia will be placed on the southern Tibetan border to counter the Chinese threat. The weapons referred to by Indian media are five S-400 missile defense systems delivered to India by Russia. India signed a USD 5.43 billion contract with Russia in 2019 for the purchase of the five S-400 surface-to-air missile systems. According to Russia, the S-400 missile defense system is one of the most advanced missile defense systems in the world, capable of hitting 80 targets simultaneously and posing a major threat to Chinese missiles as well as J-20 fighter jets. Such systems, which Russia sold to India, were apparently used to help India defend against Chinese and Pakistani attacks.
By contrast, China applied to buy the missile defense system from Russia as early as 2014, yet India, which applied for it four years later than China (2018), instead got the defense system from Russia ahead of the others. It is reported that the application for the purchase of the missile defense system has been postponed indefinitely due to the relations between the Chinese Communist Party and the Russian Communist Party.
It is also reported that Putin facilitated many Indian-Russian military relations during his visit to India. On December 6, the two sides signed an agreement for India to purchase 600,000 AK-203 assault rifles, and Russia will also authorize direct production of these advanced rifles in India.
Notably, the terms of the agreement also include the "reciprocal exchange of logistics agreement (RELOS)" that will allow Indian and Russian militaries to use each other's military bases and logistics support facilities. According to a senior Indian official, one of the agreements would allow Russian naval vessels to refuel at ports on India's coast and use naval bases in the Indian Ocean in case of accidents and other emergencies. On the other hand, the Indian Navy will also be able to receive refueling support from the Russian naval vessels, enabling it to operate near the Russian Far East. In other words, Russia will provide support and assistance to the Indian Navy under this agreement when the Indian Navy is fighting the Chinese Navy in the South Sea.
Second, Russia has massively encroached on China's interests in the South Sea. Russia has helped Vietnam to exploit oil in the South Sea on a large scale in the past, encroaching on China's interests in the South Sea. Now, Russia is also helping Indonesia to extract oil in waters where it has territorial disputes with China. It is reported that at the end of June this year, Indonesia drilled in the "Tuna Block" in the southernmost part of the South Sea, or North Natuna Sea as known to it, which lasted until November. Indonesia's move drew China's displeasure and protest, claiming that the area falls within the nine-dash line and is Chinese territory. But Indonesia's response was to claim that it is its sovereign right and that drilling would never stop. In fact, Zarubezhneft, Russia's state-owned energy giant, happens to own half of the "Tuna Block". Russian media reported that the two exploration wells in the "Tuna Block" were actually all funded by the "overseas oil company". In other words, Russia is actually helping Indonesia to do so.
Russia's state-owned oil company is clearly encroaching on China's interests in the South Sea. Moreover, this "overseas oil company" took over the offshore oil and gas exploration business in Vietnam from another Russian state-owned oil company Rosneft this year. Previously, the Chinese side had protested against Rosneft's oil drilling in the South Sea for Vietnam. Rosneft is a major supplier of Russian oil to the Chinese market and has a large presence in China. However, the "overseas oil company" that help Indonesia and Vietnam develop have no business ties to China. So, it's clear that Putin is playing a game of geo-asset integration, supporting a swap of stakes between Russia's two state-owned oil companies and dividing the work between them: one continues to do business with China and sell high-priced oil and gas to China, while the other continues to make a fortune in the South Sea.
China's intelligence and information capabilities with respect to Russia, North Korea, India, and Vietnam are weak across the board, as its information and intelligence resources are broadly focused on the U.S. In fact, when Vietnamese President Nguyen Xuan Phuc visited Moscow a few days ago, the president of the "overseas oil company", Sergey Kudryashov, also participated in the meeting between Putin and Phuc. The leaders of Russia and Vietnam decided to strengthen energy cooperation between the two countries and also signed relevant agreements.
A quick search on the internet reveals that Russia has been cooperating with Vietnam in oil exploitation in the South Sea since the Soviet era more than four decades ago. Now, this Russian cooperation in oil exploitation has been extended to Indonesia, showing that Russia's ambitions lie in larger interests. It is also intriguing to note that Russia and Indonesia have also strengthened their cooperation in other areas. For years, Russia has been actively marketing its Su-35 fighter jets and other weaponry to Indonesia. Russia, co-led with Indonesia, has just held its first joint naval exercise with ASEAN. The last trump card in Putin's hand that he has not played is the "Taiwan issue", and it is only a matter of time before Putin plays this "Taiwan issue", as can be expected.
