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Saturday, January 08, 2022
ANBOUND's Observation: Latest Development in Kazakhstan
Chan Kung

The turmoil in the streets of Kazakhstan has nearly brought about huge changes to the country, and many, including Chinese leaders, are quite concerned about the development of the situation. Now, with the support of the Kazakh field units, the situation has been basically stabilized. That said, the problems remain, and this gives certain parties opportunities to reap the benefits from the situation. The Socialist Movement in Kazakhstan is fighting for leadership and eager to play the role of the organizer. The same is true of Kazakh opposition leader Mukhtar Qabyluly Ablyazov. During the whole process of street protests, their voices could not be heard, but now they have all spoken out. Ablyazov has also asked Western countries to support Kazakhstan against Russia. It is estimated that this situation will continue in the future.

As we have estimated previously, the street protests and the involvement of the Russian troops could lead to a major change in Kazakhstan. It is unlikely that former Kazakh leader Nursultan Nazarbayev will continue to hold the power like how he did in the past, at least Russian President Vladimir Putin would object to it. In fact, by dispatching troops to Kazakhstan, Putin is likely to have his own condition, which could be that Nazarbayev may have to leave the center of power in Kazakhstan, and the country must undergo political reform. The result of this reform is likely to cause trauma to all institutions and organizations related to Nazarbayev to a certain extent. This is because Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and Putin want to see is a new page in Kazakhstan, not a repeat of the past.

In general, the situation in Kazakhstan is unfavorable to China, and Putin is wary of China's intervention. This is closely related to the "China relationship" that Putin has repeatedly stated in the past. While understands well what China wants, he is never willing to provide it.