ANBOUND's Observation: Kazakhstan's Situation Continues to Evolve
Observation on January 6, 2022:
There appears to be subtle changes in Kazakhstan.
On January 9, the press secretary of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev
said that the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) would stay in
Kazakhstan for about a week. After the anti-terrorism operation is over, the CSTO
peacekeepers would leave the country. This statement is obviously hard to come
true, because the army does not come and go at will. This is an indication that
the internal conflicts in Kazakhstan are becoming more and more complicated and
intensified, and they have reached a level that can no longer be concealed. It
would not be surprising if there are news of clashes between the Kazakh army
and the Russian army.
After the situation in Kazakhstan has
stabilized, Russia might continue to increase its troops in Kazakhstan. This is
probably related to Vladimir Putin's strategic goals, and not entirely based on
the need for the Central Asian country's internal stability. In fact, it can be
seen from the above thread that Russia entered Kazakhstan to support the Kazakh
President at his request only after the main Armed Forces of the Republic of
Kazakhstan began to firmly intervene in the chaos. At that time, Almaty had
actually been gradually controlled by the Kazakh troops.
Observation on January 14, 2022:
It is quite normal to have different
analytical logics for the same matter, yet among these various logics, there
will only be a single correct one that can be tested by facts. The same is true
with regard to the withdrawal of CSTO force. Earlier ANBOUND has mentioned that
the situation will be a complicated one, and now it is Kazakh President Tokayev
who wanted the troops to withdraw, despite of the improbability. Sure enough,
on January 12, he once again announced that for CSTO peacekeeping force, the
anti-terrorism and peacekeeping tasks had been completed. He also announced the
decision to withdraw the CSTO peacekeeping force from January 13. However, on
the evening of January 12, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that when the
CSTO will withdraw is coordinated by the CSTO Council, and Russia cannot decide
it unilaterally. In other words, Russia denies the withdrawal has started.
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu
also publicly stated that the CSTO peacekeeping force will continue to perform its
tasks in Kazakhstan, and it will not withdraw from the country until the
situation is completely stabilized.
One thing is certain at this point,
Tokayev's so-called "troop withdrawal" order was issued without prior
coordination with Russia. This shows there is contradiction between Kazakhstan
and Russia, leading to the possibility of Russia threatening the latter's
independence. Such contradiction has been completely made public, but it has yet
to reach the level of the end of the relations between the two countries.
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