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Tuesday, February 18, 2020
Medium-to-long-term effects of the outbreak on China

Question: What medium-to-long-term effects do you think this epidemic will have on all aspects of China?

Chan Kung: There will be increasing calls for major policy adjustments, including the Belt and Road Initiative and the construction of large regions. The epidemic surely has certain impacts. It is clear that big is not necessarily better for cities, as the bigger a city is, the harder to manage it. Previously, it was assumed that this would not be the case, but now we see that this is indeed the reality and there is certain degree of impact. The Belt and Road Initiative is mostly facing the devaluation of the renminbi. Such devaluation is likely to occur after the epidemic, and the world understands it.

The situation of the stock market will still be as we estimated in the past. After the epidemic, due to the sufficient capital, a part of the floating capital will be overflowing into the market, thereby pushing up the stock market. However, we should warn first that no sudden, drastic action should be taken in face of such situation; instead gradual absorption should be done.

After the epidemic, there will not be many heated markets. So, China should not block all the paths, else it would be lack of the sense of the bigger picture. Therefore, the stock market will still enjoy certain opportunities, it depends on how the relevant parties engage in it.

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