Under the intensification of geopolitical rivalries and waves of anti-globalization, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), a major project for China's participation in global governance, has seen multiple challenges in recent years. This strategic initiative, which is mainly aimed at economic cooperation, has been given too much geopolitical overtone. With the complication of the situation, some key fulcrums of the BRI are now encountering multiple challenges.
It has been reported that Pakistan's Gwadar Port was attacked a few days ago, where 10 oil depots and 13 oil tankers there were directly affected. A fire broke out at the scene, and merchant ships and one Pakistani military vessel were damaged. Immediately after the attack, the Pakistani side took emergency measures, began to control the port, and organized special personnel to extinguish the fire. The attack caused relatively serious losses and made the security situations in the port look grim.
Gwadar Port is in a unique geographical location, one that is practically the crossroad of Asia and also linked to the Gulf countries on its west, occupying an important role in the maritime routes. It is a modern large-scale port and logistics center built by China as an aid for Pakistan. Judging from the map, the strategic position of the northern part of Gwadar can bypass Iran and has direct access to Central Asia. The United States saw its value earlier and planned to develop it to pass through the Middle East and Central Asia, but the Pakistani side refused the plan. From 2002 onwards, China began aiding Pakistan to develop the Gwadar Port.
Figure 1: Geo-strategical location of the Gwadar Port
Source: Internet
In fact, during the construction of Gwadar Port and its post-completion operations, this strategic port has often been attacked by various militants. Among the most involved in the attacks was the local extremist Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) in Pakistan. It is reported that this time the attack was carried out by the Baloch rebels, and it was a premeditated attack. It is worth noting that one cannot rule out the possible involvement of Indian intelligence agencies. Balochistan, as an independent force in Pakistan, has always been supported by Indian intelligence services; it does not refuse foreign aid, even from India.
In the BRI, the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is an important strategic fulcrum. As early as 2016, based on long-term tracking and research on the "New Silk Road" and putting forward relevant strategies, ANBOUND organized a delegation to conduct research in Pakistan together with Professor Tang Mengsheng of Peking University. Among the issues being researched were Pakistan's domestic economic and social development situation, as well as the construction of the CPEC, as well as geopolitical hotspots such as Gwadar Port. ANBOUND's founder Chan Kung pointed out at the time that the process of China's economic rise had an important dependence on globalization, yet its participation in the global economy did not focus on geostrategy. Instead, China focuses more on the conventional macro-control and macro-policy. Although the United States and the developed countries in the world regard China as their main competitor, they adjust their global strategy and deployment because they believe that China is a global country. However, China itself has yet to know how to be one.
The attack on the Gwadar Port is an important signal that if the assault could reach such a large scale, it indicates that the port has lost its position. At the same time, it also shows that the capabilities of the BLA are no longer at the level of an ordinary terrorist organization, but a powerful armed force. According to Chan Kung, it is not surprising that such an attack occurred. At a time when there was a major change in Afghanistan, ANBOUND warned that the BLA and the Taliban are cooperating extensively and that the result of this cooperation cannot be a peaceful, stable, thriving, consultative democracy, but a situation of bloodshed, violence, and intensified fighting.
ANBOUND has pointed out in the past that complex tribal culture and tribal politics will affect the success or failure of CPEC. South Asia is one of the regions with the most serious ethnic conflicts and religious violence in the world today, of which Pakistan is a country challenged by separatism, terrorism, and religious extremist activities. There have been attempts to establish a greater Baloch state that encompasses parts of the borders of Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan. With this, a number of large-scale armed conflicts with the Pakistani government broke up as a result. The complex ethnic and religious structure has been one of the main obstacles that have plagued Pakistan's national development since independence. Those who are not optimistic about Pakistan's political future often use the terms "Balkanization" and "Lebanonization" to describe the possible consequences of Pakistan's severe ethnic, religious, and social contradictions.
At the height of the BRI, Chan Kung analyzed and advised that unless Pakistan seeks development while pushing the parties involved in the country's internal conflict for reconciliation and preparing for deep intervention, the fighting, violence, and bloodshed will not see an end.
Final analysis conclusion:
The large-scale terrorist attack on Gwadar Port is a dangerous wake-up call that the important fulcrum and model project of China's Belt & Road Initiative has been severely challenged geopolitically. China needs not only to assess the security situation in Pakistan but also to consider how to adjust its cooperation strategy.
