The Russia-Ukraine war has been ongoing for over 14 months with no clear end in sight. This large-scale war has caused hundreds of thousands of casualties, making it a rare human tragedy in modern society in the 21st century.
Given the current situation, Ukraine cannot win against Russia without NATO's intervention, but Russia is also unlikely to win. Will NATO forces officially engage in direct warfare with Russia? Will Russian President Vladimir Putin choose nuclear warfare? According to researchers at the ANBOUND, these two possibilities almost do not exist because they are mutually exclusive conditions. If one situation occurs, it will trigger the other.
Although it is still unknown when this war will end, the path to its conclusion has gradually become clearer, which is peace as advocated by the ANBOUND since its outbreak. Although the time, means, and difficulty of achieving peace are unknown, and the situation in the war may still deteriorate and fluctuate, it appears that peace is almost the only choice for this war to reach its end.
ANBOUND is a firm advocate and supporter of a peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine. On February 27, 2022, just three days after the outbreak of the war, ANBOUND's founder Chan Kung proposed that promoting and achieving peace is China's "hard power", and it should insist on demanding peace in resolving the issue. Now and in the future, the "power of demanding peace" will certainly become a major force, and China can become an important promoter or even leader of this huge force and eventually become the ultimate winner. Chan pointed out that as a positive force in the world, if China must take sides, it must stand on the side of the ultimate winner and on the side that conforms to the trend of history. Only by insisting on peace can China demonstrate its strength and gain more recognition from the world.
On March 1, 2022, researchers at ANBOUND analyzed that, for the Russia-Ukraine crisis, ANBOUND's proposal of "peace negotiations" is the best option, and that China should actively mediate and act as a bridge for communication between Russia and the world, as well as between Russia and Ukraine. China should strive to play an important role in this process and become a key force in promoting Ukraine's path to peace.
On March 9, 2022, ANBOUND further proposed that China could act as a "constructive mediator" in the conflict, and promote a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine by actively mediating and facilitating negotiations between the two countries. We believe that China acting as a "constructive mediator" has multiple positive implications. First and foremost, the most important goal is to promote peace, which has become the world's most pressing wish amidst the escalating conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Secondly, it can help China secure geopolitical and diplomatic space for its future development. Thirdly, China, as a "constructive mediator" promoting peace, is working for the interests of both Russia and Ukraine, particularly in helping Russia retain its development space.
China has been prioritizing a peaceful resolution of the war in Ukraine. President Xi Jinping mentioned that efforts favoring peaceful solutions should be supported to avoid escalation of tensions. In February 2023, the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs proposed 12 points for resolving the crisis with peace as the core. In April, Xi spoke with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, urging peace talks and sending a special envoy to visit Ukraine.
In promoting peace in the Middle East, China has also had a significant impact. In March of this year, Saudi Arabia and Iran reached a peace agreement in Beijing and restored diplomatic relations between the two countries shortly thereafter. Other developments include the cessation of military confrontation between Saudi Arabia and Yemen, and the restoration of relations between Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Turkey, Iran, the Houthi militants in Yemen, and Hamas in Palestine, which led to the end of the Yemen war. At the same time, the "cold war" between Turkey, Iran, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia also seems to be coming to an end. It should be noted that these changes seem to have occurred "outside the influence of the United States". As ANBOUND's researchers previously analyzed, China is an active builder and mediator in promoting peace, while the U.S. seems unable to bring peace solutions to these disputed regions.
If persistent wars cannot solve problems, then peace should be chosen. We have noticed subtle changes in the attitude of the U.S. towards China's efforts to promote peace. An opinion article published in the Washington Post on May 3 stated that "the U.S. warms to a role for China in resolving the Ukraine war". The article mentions that when asked about U.S.-China cooperation on the war in Ukraine, Secretary of State Antony Blinken gave a surprisingly frank answer: "In principle, there's nothing wrong with that if we have a country, whether it's China or other countries that have significant influence that are prepared to pursue a just and durable peace. … We would welcome that, and it's certainly possible that China would have a role to play in that effort. And that could be very beneficial". Blinken's comments echoed what senior U.S. officials had said privately in recent days, that the U.S. and China could cooperate to mediate this brutal conflict. The Washington Post's article believes Blinken's words significantly differ from previous U.S. government statements.
Final analysis conclusion:
After 14 months of ongoing conflict in Ukraine, peace has become the only viable option for all parties involved. Promoting and facilitating peace is a true demonstration of a nation's hard power, and China is increasingly emerging as a prominent player in this domain.
