The British Parliament rejected the Brexit deal of Theresa May's government on January 15. The voting results of the British Parliament showed that the deal was rejected by 432 votes to 202, resounding majority of 230. The British media believe that this is the worst defeat in the history of the British ruling party in the vote of the House of Commons. Bloomberg believes that "the U.K. is mired in a political paralysis over a decision that has divided the nation and its political class for decades". For such a situation, Anbound believes that the current voting results of the British Parliament will not only further delay the process of Brexit, but also cause Theresa May's government to face the crisis, and the United Kingdom will be in a long period of predicament.

The political quagmire of Brexit will have a long-term impact on Britain, which will further intensify the divisions of Britain itself. Brexit is a reaction to the current "reversal-globalization" trend, which reflects the differentiation between the British elites and the general public. Although Brexit will free Britain from some of its obligations and burdens on the EU and ease the contradictions between the social stratifications, it will cause Britain's own competitiveness to decline and the scale of its market to shrink, bringing lasting damage the future development of Britain. This has caused greater damage to the interests of the elites and will increase the political and economic division in Britain. At the same time, the differences in the Brexit issue will also intensify the division between the various regions of the United Kingdom. Relatively underdeveloped regions such as Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland have gained great benefits in the EU. Intensifying the differentiation between these regions and the relatively developed England, coupled with historical reasons, Northern Ireland and Ireland will get closer in the future, and Scotland's leaning towards independence will become more apparent. The potential risks of such divisions will intensify the disputes on the Brexit issue in the UK, and the long delay in Brexit will accentuate the problems and contradictions within the UK, which could create the risk of fragmenting the UK.

The delay in Brexit has also led to a significant increase in uncertainties, which has hurt Britain's capital markets and its economy, locking Britain in the economic quagmire, while the pound is still volatile. Scotiabank expects the medium-term outlook for the pound to remain very unstable. The rejection of the Brexit agreement will make things even more confusing, and analysts generally believe that it is inevitable that the pound will continue to fluctuate in the near future. A report of the University of Bristol dated on January 14 shows that the impact of the Brexit referendum has reduced the value of UK companies by 16%, and companies with a focus on UK domestic market have been affected the most, mainly because it is difficult for companies to plan, investment is put on hold, and consumers cut spending. As for the stock market, just a day before the vote, a lot of money was withdrawn from the UK stock market. Deutsche Bank also warned that disorderly Brexit would have serious consequences for the British economy. The UK may fall into a recession of at least two years, and the EU economic growth rate will also decrease by 0.5 percentage points because disorderly Brexit will seriously interfere with trade, financial conditions, and investor confidence.

For the future development of Brexit, the forecasts of the international media mention several directions. The first is there will be negotiations for a new Brexit agreement with the EU; the second is re-election in the UK; the third another Brexit referendum, the fourth is Brexit without agreement, the fifth is the withdrawal of Brexit and Britain continue to stay in the EU. However, Anbound's macro-research team points out that no matter which kind of outcome, the current political situation in the UK will bring endless troubles.

On the one hand, the renegotiation of Brexit with the EU requires not only the agreement of Britain but also the consent of all EU member states, which poses difficulty for the EU. The EU will not renegotiate the Brexit agreement after the voting results are released. Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission issued a statement saying that the current agreement is already the "best agreement" and it is the only mean to ensure an orderly Brexit. Now the agreement is rejected by the British House of Commons, the risk for the chaotic situation has increased. At the same time, the EU will continue to prepare emergency plans to fully prepare for the Brexit.

In addition, although the European Court of Justice has pointed out that Brexit can be withdrawn, whether there is a second referendum or the withdrawal of Brexit, it would mean that the referendum in 2016 would be invalid, which will cause irreversible damage to the British democratic politics, as mentioned by Theresa May herself. Anbound's chief researcher Mr. Chan Kung pointed out that if there is a second referendum, it will bring a series of consequences, like the question of if there will be the third referendum and if the future election would be effective. The seriousness of these problems will threaten the foundation of the British political system. From an operational perspective, it is no longer possible to hold a referendum before the Brexit deadline on March 29, as a referendum requires a series of legal procedures, and must be fully negotiated and considered by the Electoral Commission. Therefore, Anbound believes that there will not be the possibility of a second referendum; Brexit will still be limited to administrative issues.

If Britain wants to achieve Brexit with an agreement, the most likely possibility is the re-election of the Parliament. Whether the Parliament would pass the British Labor Party's proposal of the vote of no confidence of Theresa May's government to force the Prime Minister to resign, or the Prime Minister's initiative to dissolve the Parliament from the public opinion to obtain political support for her Brexit agreement, the possibility of Britain's re-election is very high. However, even if the election is to be held earlier, it will take at least 25 working days. In this way, there will be not much time left for the new government. If the outcome of the election cannot form an overwhelming political advantage, then Britain will still be unable to change the outcome of the "hard Brexit" without agreement.

Of course, the British ruling and opposition parties actually understand that "hard Brexit" will cause harm to the EU and the United Kingdom, this is what the British government has always wanted to avoid, yet as time approaches, this risk is increasing. The Italian Institute for International Political Studies predicts that a disorderly Brexit will lead to an 8% contraction in the British economy and a decrease in per capita GDP of about 3,000 euros in the first year after Brexit. According to the existing law, before March 29, 2019, if the British and European sides did not reach a new Brexit agreement, or complete the legal process to postpone Brexit or withdraw Article 50 of the EU's Lisbon Treaty that triggers Brexit, then on this day it will be the official day for non-agreement Brexit.

Final analysis conclusion:

Brexit is a political drama directed by Conservative Party politicians to cater to the populism and has caused an intensification of internal divisions in Britain. It is a trial for Theresa May's political courage and wisdom, to see if she can balance the interests of all parties to achieve the best results. Longer time is needed for Britain to get rid of the Brexit quagmire and achieve a new balance in politics and economy.