China's growth and the rise is a process of strategic space expansion, and this process is experiencing the impact of the anti-globalization wave. In a long period of the present time and the future, the main global trend is that the world is becoming irrationalized; isolationism is increasing in the mainstream of society, where the world is becoming antagonized and fragmented. This kind of environmental change has posed great challenges to China's development. In the past, China has entered the international market economically by participating in globalization and has been politically regarded as a "harmless existence" to gain development space and opportunities. However, with the rise of irrational waves, China has been defined by the United States as the main long-term strategic competition rival. Together with the problems faced by China in its implementation of the Belt & Road Initiative, which has aggravated the world's concerns about China, the development space and opportunities that China enjoyed in the past no longer exist.
China has gained a lot in the past globalization process; it expanded its market space in North America, Europe, East Asia, West Asia, Africa and even South America. However, under the new strategic environment, these spaces have been squeezed out to varying degrees. Hence, expanding new development space has become an urgent strategic need for China. Facing such dilemma, Anbound's chief researcher and renowned geopolitical scholar Chan Kung who has been tracking the geopolitical issues for a long period of time, pointed out that different strategic window periods will have different strategic hotspots; some countries surrounding the Himalayas, including India might occupy an important position in China's new geopolitical strategy.
China and India are both ancient civilizations with a long history. The two countries are geographically proximate, located on the north and south sides of the Himalayas, and neighboring countries with a common border of 1,700 km. In the long history, the two countries have had close religious, cultural and artistic exchanges, yet in modern times, the geopolitical relations between the two are quite delicate. China and Pakistan have maintained long-term friendly relations, while its relationship with India is the opposite and there are more suspicions than cooperation and trust. However, in this turbulent world, from both economic and political perspectives, the alienation between China and India is a loss for both countries and a strategic oversight.
Anbound's scholar Chan Kung sees that the changes in the global situation have provided an opportunity and pressure for China and India to enhance the bilateral relations. We advocate that China and India should seek closer cooperation and focus on the global market and put the Himalayan region into consideration. The multilateral cooperation promotes the establishment of the Himalaya Common Market and pushes bilateral strategic cooperation to a new geopolitical height. Looking at the global market from a geopolitical perspective, the Himalayan region has two major markets that have a huge impact on the world market. One is China, which is eager to stabilize its existing economic miracle; the other is India, which is seeking economic take-off to develop its own country to become a global power.
In the world's large economies, China and India are both exceptions and distingue from the West; both seek to maintain a certain independent status and maintaining their own paths. The pace of development in China and India is not the same; China started early, but the later start of India is more energetic. Therefore, China can allow more goods to flow to India, and also encourage as much as possible of India's capital to hold the rights of Chinese assets, thereby sharing the benefits of the Chinese market. Due to India's advantages in drug production, the close economic and trade arrangements between China and India, which are similar to the common market, may even solve the problem of China's severe and vicious population aging problem as drug prices have always been a primary issue in aging population problem, while India can supply drug at lower price.
Looking from the basic conditions, the two countries have the conditions and potential to establish a common market. In terms of population, China and India are the world's most populous and second-largest populous countries respectively. In 2017, China's population was about 1.39 billion, India's population was about 1.304 billion, and the two countries totaled nearly 2.7 billion, accounting for 35.9% of the world's 7.5 billion population. In terms of economic scale, China's economy accounted for 15.4% of the world's total in 2017, while India accounted for about 3.27%; the two countries' total economy accounted for 18.67%, with a scale of US$ 14.84 trillion. According to World Bank's statistics, in 2017, China's per capita GDP was US$ 8,827, and India's was about US$ 1,900. India has low labor costs and China already has relatively mature technologies and production. Therefore, the cooperation in the Himalayan region is very promising and has strong competitiveness in the global market.
Is it politically feasible for China and India to jointly build the Himalayan Common Market? We believe that this has a political basis. China and India are the two largest emerging market countries, and they are both within the BRICS countries. More importantly, the leaders of the two countries have reached a consensus regarding this. In April 2018, President Xi Jinping and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held an informal bilateral meeting in Wuhan, which is of great significance in the exchanges between the two countries. President Xi Jinping pointed out that to grasp China-India relations strategically, first of all, China and India should be good neighbors and good friends; they should regard each other as a positive factor in the comparative change of world power and see their counterpart as a partner to realize their own development. Second, the development and growth of China and India is the trend and an important opportunity for each other. Third, both China and India pursue an independent foreign policy and must correctly analyze and treat each other's intentions. President Xi Jinping also pointed out that in the next stage, China and India should jointly conduct comprehensive planning of bilateral cooperation to promote regional economic integration and interconnectivity.
To establish a China-India common market, the issue of Pakistan cannot be bypassed. The conflict between India and Pakistan has been in existence for a long time, and now India and Pakistan are having conflicts over Kashmir. Therefore, the development of China-Indian relations must take into account the problems of Pakistan. Anbound's chief researcher Chan Kung believes that Pakistan's demands for China have the economic, political, and military aspects, but the core issue is actually a security guarantee. The establishment of the Himalayan Common Market can be gradually promoted; at first, it would have restrictions, then it would be more comprehensive, and countries around the Himalayan region can participate in it. This Himalayan Common Market should have the premise of peaceful development. On the one hand, China can conduct economic and trade cooperation with India; on the other hand, it can provide Pakistan with security guarantees, create a peaceful development environment and possibilities, and ultimately promote peace in the South Asian subcontinent.
Final analysis conclusion:
The global market expansion demand brought by the rise of China has encountered restrictions as the result of trade frictions initiated by the United States, investment restrictions, technological restrictions, national security challenges, and strategic suppression at the geopolitical level. In this context, it is necessary for China to strengthen cooperation with India, its neighboring southern country that is also a world power, to build a Himalayan Common Market and push the strategic cooperation between the two countries to a new geographical height.
