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Sunday, February 24, 2019
"Four Worlds" by Industrial Level
ANBOUND

The wave of anti-globalization in the recent years has become a worldwide trend.

The manifestation of anti-globalization has profound reasons and historical logic behind it. On the surface, it is due to frictions caused by the uneven distribution of interests in the process of globalization. Developed countries, like the United States, require a redistribution of the benefits of globalization. This is actually a new competition for market space in the world. Judging from the ongoing U.S.-China trade disputes, the main issue in the trade war between the two countries lies in the dominant influence of the space in the world market. Anbound's Chief Researcher Chan Kung considered this to be a global market war. This means that it is a worldwide, major and historic "commercial war". This is a market war that revolves around the business interests of these countries.

This competition of market space will profoundly affect the international industrial division of labor, trade system, regional cooperation and capital flows. These areas could very well undergo great changes, even to the extent of a structural reconstruction.

For a long time, there is a trend for every country to strive in order to determine its position in the world industrial structure according to its own wishes, which has resulted in some unrealistic development orientations. This all arises from the competitiveness of economic development However, the actual division of labor, regional cooperation and capital flows of different countries are closely related to the development status of the world's geo-space. The different development states of different countries narrate that the world will have different modes of division of labor, industrial exchanges and industrial sectors.

If we look at the immediate future, Chan Kung's judgment is that the world's geo-regional development status can be divided into "four worlds":

The first world is the traditional importing consumers of the OECD. These are the high-tech countries, which include the "old" European countries, as well as developed countries such as Singapore, South Korea and Japan. As these countries started development earlier, and their national wealth level is relatively high. They are basically consumption-led economic models.

The second world belongs to the current economic and industrial transitional countries and regions, which are shifting from a productive society to a consumer society. Such countries are actually few and far between; it seems that only China is such a country. This may also be a reason for China's relatively isolated world status.

The third world refers to the emerging consumer goods processing and exporting countries along the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean coast. These countries are trying to move away from poverty to a productive society and attempt to become more prosperous. The status quo of these countries is just like what China faced at the beginning of reform and opening-up of its economy two to three decades ago. The fourth world refers to the yet-to-be developed countries, such as certain impoverished countries in Africa and South America.

Each element of "four worlds" have different economic pursuits and political demands. Chan Kung further explained that the division of "four worlds" is related to the development stages and status of the economies. When we look at the future global industrial division in our discussion on regional international cooperation, if we seek partnerships according to the definition of "four worlds", then it would be easier for us to integrate into future global trends. In this regard, the "four worlds" model actually provides a simple but effective analytical framework.

Similarly, according to the economic stage theory of the "four worlds", China's current position and influence in the world market is actually very special. The stage of China's rise and development is between the Four Asian Tigers and the rise of the Pacific and Indian Ocean countries, thus placing China in an isolated developmental stage compared with other countries. Hence, it is difficult for other countries to respond to China, which makes other countries competitors of China with few of them having sympathy towards China. In the future, China's industrial policy and regional cooperation must fully consider the geo-industry pattern of the "four worlds". It is necessary for China to accurately find its own position and locate its development trajectory in order to have a break through. It is also only through years of efforts that China can gradually promote its geo-development to the first world level.

Final analysis conclusion:

Whether the industrial world is too advanced or lagging behind by a huge margin would both be harmful to China's social economy and industrial development environment. A deteriorating industrial development environment will lead to deteriorating conditions and create a deteriorated business orientation.

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