2019 will be an important year for Xiong'an New District. After the official approval of the 2018-2035 Xiong'an New District Master Plan at the end of 2018, various good news was released in January this year. On January 11, the State Council held a high-profile press conference on Xiong'an's planning; on January 16, President Xi Jinping went to Xiong'an New District for observation and survey; on January 24, Xinhua News Agency was authorized by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council to publish Guiding Opinions on Supporting the Comprehensive Deepening of Reform and the Expansion of Opening-up in Xiongan New District of Hebei Province (hereinafter referred to as Guiding Opinions). These signals show that 2019 will be the year of large-scale construction for Xiong'an New District.
Certain official media has published an article interpreting the Guiding Opinions; the article stated that in the past two years, Xiong'an's top priority was planning. During the period, more than 1,000 planning experts, 200 teams, and 2,500 technicians travelled between Beijing and Xiong'an to participate in the drafting of the new district planning. As many as 199 revisions had been done, and finally the general design and development blueprint of Xiong'an has been approved. The Guidance Opinions made an overall plan for supporting the comprehensive deepening reform and opening-up of the Xiong'an New District in the Hebei Province, and clearly proposed 35 key tasks. A series of supporting implementation plans will be issued, which will eventually form the "1+N" policy system of Xiong'an New District and become the supporting pillars of this future city.
It is worth noting that such relevant interpretation has given a strong hint to the independent establishment of the Xiong'an New District. According to the article, the most intriguing thing about the Guiding Opinions is that it aims at "gradually granting provincial-level economic and social management authority to Xiong'an New District." The purpose of delegating management authority to Xiong'an is to give the new district greater autonomy in reform like Shenzhen in the past, and to open the way in pioneering the deepening of reform and opening-up. Giving provincial authority is an unprecedented authorization in the 40 years of reform and opening-up, exceeding the previous authorization for Shenzhen and Pudong. So far, Pudong New Area is only a sub-provincial new area; Shenzhen is a sub-provincial city and a city under separate state planning, enjoying "provincial management authority" in the economy, but does not include "provincial social management authority". The content related to empowerment also includes "promoting the transition of Xiong'an New District from the new district management system to the urban management system". Combining these two points, Xiong'an New District will be established as a "city" in the future, and it is likely to be a municipal city. This means that Xiong'an is not just another Shenzhen in this new era of reform and opening-up, its administrative status is actually higher than that of Shenzhen. In the future, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration will be on an equal footing with Beijing and Tianjin, becoming an important pillar of support and growth.
From the above content, Anbound's research team believes that the interpretation of the Guiding Opinions may come from the "informed people" who has participated in the planning of the Xiong'an New District; it views the issue from the perspective of planning, foreshadowing the possibilities of the future. However, if the Xiong'an New District, located in the territory of Hebei Province and undertakes the functions and elements of certain capital functions of Beijing as an independent city, it will obviously face many problems. Anbound's Chief Researcher Chan Kung pointed out that if Xiong'an New District is truly a completely independent municipal-level administrative unit, its impact on Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is highly likely to be competitive. According to Chen Gong's analysis, from a realistic point of view, while it is possible that there will be cooperation between Xiong'an and Beijing, if Xiong'an is to be set as a high-level municipal city, that possibility is not very big. Xiong'an is only 120 km away from Beijing. Tianjin, which is a municipal city directly under the Central Government, is also about than 120 km away from Beijing. If Xiong'an is re-established as a municipal city, then within the area of approximately 120 km in the North China Plain, three municipal cities will be established. They would then be three of the five China's municipal cities (the other two municipalities are Shanghai and Chongqing). This kind of situation is indeed somewhat ridiculous. The outcome will not be solely determined by the government alone; it is definitely necessary to carefully consider the opinions of the National People's Congress as well.
From the perspective of regional economic cooperation and competition, Xiong'an's high-level establishment as an independent city will have huge impact on the geo-economics and may even significantly affect the current Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei coordinated development pattern. In this regard, the prospects for this approach are full of uncertainties. From the perspective of regional competition and cooperation in the Yangtze River Delta region, regional economic differences will create competitions even in the same administrative province. Take Jiangsu as an example; there is competition between Jiangbei and Jiangnan, and competition between Nanjing and Suzhou. The competition between Jiangsu and Shanghai is even more obvious, and it has not been completely solved to this day. In the study of the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, Anbound found that in the latest development plans of Jiangsu, Shanghai and Zhejiang, the development of integration is still based on the interests of the province. The same is true for the development of Chengdu and Chongqing in the western region of China. In the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Tianjin's economic downturn has been quite bad. If there is another competition from Xiong'an municipality, Tianjin might not be able to withstand it. Will Hebei then be the biggest beneficiary? If Xiong'an is directly under the central government, it will have little to do with Hebei. The impact of Xiong'an as an independent city on Beijing will be great. Beijing is having difficulty in maintaining its 6.5% economic growth, how then can it support an independent Xiong'an City in the future? In the past, Anbound has already analyzed that the Xiong'an New District has the land of Hebei but belonged to the central government. From the perspective of geo-economy, Xiong'an's adsorption capacity as an independent city will inevitably be stronger; the economy of Beijing and Tianjin is bound to be weakened.
Final analysis conclusion:
One cannot rule out the possibility of Xiong'an will be established as an independent city. If the Xiong'an New District is set to be a high-level municipal city, it will have a negative impact on the prospects of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei. Xiong'an Newe District's sharing of Beijing's burden is its positioning, yet if it is to develop into a new municipality, it is another completely different positioning; this will be quite different from the original interpretation of Xiong'an New District.
