In this year's "Two Sessions (annual meetings of the National People's Congress and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference), the development of the hydrogen energy industry was the focus of attention. Many members of the "Two Sessions" committee have made recommendations on the development of the hydrogen energy industry. This includes several aspects:
First is to carry out strategic research on hydrogen energy, upgrading hydrogen energy from national development priorities to national development strategic level and initiate top-level design and devise hydrogen energy industry development plan.
Secondly, there is the need to ensure unified planning of national hydrogenation infrastructure, improve the construction standards of hydrogen fueling stations, specifications and approval management systems. At the same time, there is the need to change the form of subsidies for hydrogen fueling stations and increasing subsidies to prevent hydrogenation station becoming a window-dressing project without practical function.
Thirdly, it would be necessary to formulate technological innovation policies to support the hydrogen energy industry and focus on the key technology of hydrogen fuel cells for vehicles, R & D, hydrogen production, hydrogen storage and other core technology of hydrogenation.
Lastly is to unify the construction of China's hydrogen fuel cell vehicle infrastructure, form a strategic layout with international competitive advantages, and promote the comprehensive development of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of the hydrogen energy industry.
There are two cores in the development of hydrogen energy industry. One of them is hydrogen energy vehicles. This is a major issue related to how China chooses the technology path and industrial path of new energy vehicles. In the main industrial field, the second is the usage of new energy. Mr. Zhu Dequan, deputy dean of Tsinghua Industrial Development Research Institute, proposed the so-called "two 10 trillion". He believes that hydrogen energy will subvert two industries. One is the transportation industry, which accounts for over 90% of cars in this field. Second is to subvert the energy landscape. Hydrogen is the best connection point in the application of renewable energy and traditional energy. 2017 China's GDP was RMB 90.03 trillion, and both the automobile and energy industries exceeded RMB 10 trillion. This means that the development of hydrogen energy will subvert these two industries of trillion-yuan, which will have a major impact on China's national economic structure. But at present, the status of China's hydrogen energy industry is far from the scale of "RMB 20 trillion".
In the broad field of hydrogen energy utilization, hydrogen energy vehicles are an important scene for hydrogen energy applications. It is also the main concentrated area of industry and capital. Frankly speaking, for the Chinese government and industry that have been running on the route of electric vehicles for a few years, it is now heavily discussed that hydrogen energy vehicles involve major interest divisions and industrial policy adjustments. It is certain that the development of hydrogen-powered vehicles will encounter opposition and challenges from the field of electric vehicles. According to Anbound research team's point of view, the technical route selection for new energy vehicles needs to comprehensively consider development goals under different technology paths. This includes market space, technology maturity, cost, as well as environmental pollution and energy consumption assessment based on life cycle and the whole industrial chain.
Mr. Chan Kung, Chief Researcher of Anbound research team, pointed out that in China's new energy vehicle field, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles and electric vehicles facing different bottlenecks. The problem of hydrogen fuel vehicles lies on the technical side, while the problem of electric vehicles lies on the market side. The technical side problems mainly refer to the core technological research and development. This also involves breakthroughs (such as stack technology), as well as the industrial application of related technologies. From the example of Japan's Toyota Mirai, there is no problem in the application of hydrogen fuel vehicles in the market, and there will be no pollution to the environment due to the removal of traditional fuel.
Market-side problems are mainly made up of market acceptance issues and pollution problems during the vehicle's usage. The "best" electric vehicle brand in China-BYD, had launched more than 40 domestic e6 electric taxis in Hong Kong six years ago. However, due to slow charging, difficult charging stations, insufficient endurance and tire wear issues. It was ultimately discontinued after two years. Currently, Tesla is the only brand of electric vehicles with large-scale market application in developed countries. But if Tesla can't get rid of their manufacturing difficulties, while achieving financial balance and profit on the market side, it may not be able to stick to its market share.
Comparing the long-term prospects of electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel vehicles, Anbound Research team believes that hydrogen fuel vehicles have incomparable advantages in at least three aspects compared to electric vehicles:
(1) Cruising range. After a hydrogen fuel injection, the hydrogen fuel vehicle has a cruising range of 500 to 600 kilometers, almost exactly similar to that of a fuel vehicle. The cruising for electric vehicles range is too short, which is a common "barrier" for them.
(2) Fueling time is short. The fueling of a hydrogen fuel cell takes only a few minutes, even if the fuel runs out suddenly during driving, you can complete the refueling without delaying too much time. In contrast, the charging time of electric cars that lasts at least a few hours is too long. The huge difference in charging time directly affects the ease of use.
(3) Clean energy and environmental advantages. As the cleanest new energy source, hydrogen-powered vehicles can truly achieve "no pollution, zero emissions" during the use phase, and emissions and pollution in the entire industry chain are extremely low. In contrast, electric vehicles (especially domestic low-quality electric vehicles) have high pollution and emissions in the entire industrial chain.
Comparing the three aspects above, the disadvantage of electric vehicles is obvious. From a practical usage point of view, the usage of electric vehicles is almost to add to the cost of society. The more people use the higher the cost. The battery will also be shortened once every time the battery is used. By replacing the battery, it is equivalent to changing a car. In terms of charging stations, the charging mode takes too long, which means that the space utilization rate is too low, and it is the reason that fuel stations are not willing to change into charging stations. In addition, the pressure on the production cost of power batteries will increase in the future, because it is difficult to change the situation of excessive dependence on upstream resources. More critically, there are also problems with the recycling of used batteries, and the hidden dangers of environmental pollution are difficult to negate.
It is noteworthy that from the situation of countries such as Japan and the United States, the pace of hydrogen energy vehicle is accelerating. According to the understanding of Anbound industry team, the Toyota Mirai is currently on the road in Japan and Europe, and is undergoing testing in the UAE. In London, Mirai has started operating as a taxi vehicle. Toyota will also launch 6,000 hydrogen vehicles at the 2020 Winter Olympics. In fact, behind its specific market performance mentioned above, it is inseparable from the national level of hydrogen energy's development strategy.
Final analysis conclusion:
As an independent think tank, Anbound research team believes that in the development of new energy vehicles in China, the main developmental direction of hydrogen energy vehicles should be determined as soon as possible. From the perspective of historical evolution, electrically-powered battery vehicles will become the transitionary products of new energy vehicles, and hydrogen vehicles will be the future. Although hydrogen vehicles have not been able to completely replace electric vehicles, the current trend has been fixed. Because of this, the continuous development of the hydrogen energy vehicle industry is a major effort that must be undertaken.
